"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .
In article , michael adams
wrote:

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
...
In article , michael
adams wrote:

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
et...

I'm prepared to accept that it *may* exist, in the apocalyptic sense
that the warmists warn about. The OP says that what we have seen so far
isn't it, and I agree with him.

That would probably depend on what counts as "apocalyptic" nowadays.
As compared with say the Black Death. No more heated towel rails
perhaps?

Why are you asking me? I'm not the one making apocalyptic
pronouncements.

Because you're the one who's prepared to accept that global warming
may exist in the "apocolyptic" sense." Not me. I never mentioned
apocalypses. That was you.

And so its incumbent on you to explain exactly what you mean by apocalyptic
in this context.

No, dummy, don't ask me. Ask those who make the apocalyptic
pronouncements.

But you're the one who just now agreed that global warming

"*may* exist, in the apocalyptic sense that the warmists warn about"

Now you seem to be saying, that you don't actually know what
you were agreeing to.

snippage

The fact that ten heads in a row is memorable, and thus can assume an undue
significance in the minds of the unthinking, unlike say HTHHTTHTHT, in
no way affects its probability as against any other sequence, contrary to what
Keen, your quoted authority, appears to believe

a) "Intuitively, getting heads 10 out of 10 times is very implausible"


And so it is, intuitively.

Whereas in reality, its no more implausible than is any other sequence of ten
coin tosses. They're all equally "implausible" in fact.

So that in this instance one's first intuition, is clearly mistaken in the sense
that no conclusions can be drawn from any particular series of throws.
All of which are equally implausible.

The fact that both your chosen authority, and yourself apparently, still set so
much store by this discredited notion of "intuition", doesn't say much for the rest
of his/your argument I'm afraid.


michael adams

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