On 10/06/2015 21:07, bert wrote:
In article , Nightjar
writes
On 10/06/2015 07:55, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 09/06/15 23:06, Nightjar "cpb"@ wrote:
On 09/06/2015 22:15, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 09/06/15 16:18, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Nightjar cpb@ insert my surname here.me.uk wrote:
On 09/06/2015 14:00, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Tim Watts wrote:
I see your point, but I disagree that a party that got 12% vote
share is
a "minority".

Is there any official definition of minority when it comes to
political
parties?...

Generally, any party that has so little electoral support that it
has no
realistic prospect of forming or being part of a government.

Ah. Thanks. UKIP supporters will be in denial about this.

ITYM greens or liberal democrats or SNP actually. All polled far less
than UKIP.

Not much use if that doesn't translate to seats in Parliament.

In fact apart from Labour and Tory, UKIP is the ONLY other party
likely
to form a national government in the next decade

Going by the demographics of UKIP supporters, a lot of them will have
popped their clogs before then.


Another assertion simply not borne out by the facts.

According to a 2013 YouGov survey, 71% of UKIP supporters are over 50,
compared to the national figure of 46%.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/03/05...s-ukip-voters/

Another survey, from April this year, showed that their greatest
support came from the over 65s.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laur...ll-voters_b_66
31026.html

Whether you like it or not, the person most likely to support UKIP is
a retired male manual worker, over 65, living in the Eastern counties
(with Yorkshire and Humberside or the Midlands other likely areas),
who never got a higher qualification than GCSE.

The average life expectancy at age 65 for those areas is 18-19 years,
but you can knock two years off that for manual workers, giving a life
expectancy of 16-17 years. As there will be a spread of ages in that
group, I don't think it unreasonable to suggest that a lot of them
will be dead within the next ten years.

Well UGOV was spectacularly wrong on the polls

Everybody was wrong on the polls.

and you quote a 2013
survey.

You think UKIP has become the party of youth in the meanwhile?

As for the Huffington post - well that's hardly an unbiased
publication.

They did the same exercise for everybody.

--
Colin Bignell