"Nightjar.me.uk" "cpb"@ insert my surname here wrote in message
...
On 10/06/2015 07:55, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 09/06/15 23:06, Nightjar "cpb"@ wrote:
On 09/06/2015 22:15, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 09/06/15 16:18, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Nightjar cpb@ insert my surname here.me.uk wrote:
On 09/06/2015 14:00, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Tim Watts wrote:
I see your point, but I disagree that a party that got 12% vote
share is
a "minority".

Is there any official definition of minority when it comes to
political
parties?...

Generally, any party that has so little electoral support that it
has no
realistic prospect of forming or being part of a government.

Ah. Thanks. UKIP supporters will be in denial about this.

ITYM greens or liberal democrats or SNP actually. All polled far less
than UKIP.

Not much use if that doesn't translate to seats in Parliament.

In fact apart from Labour and Tory, UKIP is the ONLY other party likely
to form a national government in the next decade

Going by the demographics of UKIP supporters, a lot of them will have
popped their clogs before then.


Another assertion simply not borne out by the facts.

According to a 2013 YouGov survey, 71% of UKIP supporters are over 50,
compared to the national figure of 46%.

But not many of those would dies in the next decade.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/03/05...s-ukip-voters/

Another survey, from April this year, showed that their greatest support
came from the over 65s.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/laur...b_6631026.html

Whether you like it or not, the person most likely to support UKIP is a
retired male manual worker, over 65, living in the Eastern counties (with
Yorkshire and Humberside or the Midlands other likely areas), who never
got a higher qualification than GCSE.

That doesnt mean that many UKIP voters will die in 10 years.

The average life expectancy at age 65 for those areas is 18-19 years, but
you can knock two years off that for manual workers, giving a life
expectancy of 16-17 years. As there will be a spread of ages in that
group, I don't think it unreasonable to suggest that a lot of them will be
dead within the next ten years.

I do, but obviously that depends on what you mean by a lot.

It's less clear how many of that geriatric demographic stop bothering to
vote tho.