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Ed Huntress Ed Huntress is offline
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Default California Drought pics

On Wed, 25 Mar 2015 16:20:55 -0500, dpb wrote:

On 03/25/2015 3:26 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
...

Greece's per-capita debt is lower than that of the Netherlands,
France, the UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark...


...

It appears that there's no relationship.


The problem isn't per capita, it's whether there's sufficient GDP to be
able to service it or not.


It works out the same either way: GDP/debt, or
GDP-per-capita/debt-per-capita. It's the same ratio.

That is, if you're looking at the *size* of the debt, and making
judgments about whether that is hampering an economy. I thought that's
what you were doing.


There's a reason the PIGS are the one dragging down the world system
every time they near default.


I don't think they're dragging anything down but themselves.


That four of the five are in the top six and the fifth (Spain) is only a
few places outside is a pretty telling statistic and Japan has been in
the doldrums for 20-odd year now.


Japan's government securities rate is near zero, but they're having no
trouble selling their securities:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred.../INTGSTJPM193N

Obviously, they're not dragging anyone down. As for the rest of them,
national debt is not a simple issue.

Greece could pay its debt -- if it wanted to, in the opinion of many
experts. That's what has the Germans so hopping mad:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-c...ont-1424384652



Besides the rampant corruption and all, the uncertainty
is the bane of any investment; entrepreneurial folks don't put money
where they perceive high risk/little reward.


The high risk doesn't appear to be related to perceived corruption.
Greece ranks 94 on the Corruption Perceptions Index, tied with India,
and there isn't any shortage of investment in India going on.

...

Not what I said; the bane of investment is the uncertainty in the
financial markets...corruption just makes it tougher to be competitive
and to fix the problems internally.


--
Ed Huntress