"Michael A. Terrell" wrote in message
...

William Sommerwerck wrote:

His basic premise makes sense -- more components = lower reliability --
but
the fact is that one can easily find electronic devices 50 and 60 years
old
that have never been serviced that continue to work. Members of this
group
probably own them.

A failure rate of 1 in 10,000 (per year?) strikes me as unduly
pessimistic,
even for devices used in vacuum tube equipment. Solid-state -- which
almost
always operates at lower voltages and temperature -- should be even more
reliable.

I own devices that contain far more components than an LED bulb -- yet
they do
not drop like flies. Flat-panel TVs are a good example. CU says the
reported
breakdown rate is extremely low (3% for a few brands is on the high end),
and
advises against purchasing service contracts.

Though the point he raises is valid, and not only deserves, but requires,
study, you can't assume these products fail prematurely simply because
they
contain "too many parts". Why they failed is more important. I wouldn't
be
surprised if it was due to SMD soldering failure.

I see a lot of LED traffic lights with groups of dead LEDs.

Can't say I have ever seen even one.

The one closest to me is on the fourth red LED lamp in the last
couple years and already has some groups that are quite dim.

Presumably just a very bad design.