On 12/30/2014 11:55 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Tue, 30 Dec 2014 11:28:11 -0800, mike wrote:

On 12/30/2014 7:03 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:

I just can't project that far ahead.

It's not rocket science. It's simple math.
The first order approximation to ANYTHING is to assume
the current trend continues at the same slope.
If you don't like the trend, saying you can't predict is not
helpful.

Decide first which trend you're going to follow. Ir it's changes in
GDP growth rates, in 40 years Americans will all be rich and the
Chinese won't have a pot to pee in.

'Not likely. It is not simple math. It's immensely complex.
I'm gonna disagree. The math is simple.
The hard part is deciding which crystal ball to use for the inputs.

Picking a metric and the five top things that affect that metric
and taking action is far superior to arguing about how difficult it is
and doing nothing.

You're kidding yourself. Finding the things that "affect" the metric
is part of how they build models. It involves a lot of statistical
testing and regression analysis.

The relationships have limits and the relationships are usually
calculus functions.

Calculus functions are simple functions. People who know how to
solve complex math are easy to find. The hard part is finding people
who can decide what math is appropriate and what numbers to plug in...
AND HAVE THE LEADERSHIP ABILITY OR CLOUT to take action based on
the result.

From there, the statistics often are complex.
Sure, they are...but the more inputs you consider, the more
likely you'll encounter inaction.
Start with the big factors and DO SOMETHING.
Refine it as you go.

You can fix an error in your actions.

When? When the event occurs? The event is 40 years in the future.
When the trajectory deviates from where you've decided it should go.

You can't just jump in your sailboat, tie down the tiller and have
someone wake you up when you get there.
You gotta have your hand on it at least some/most of the time.
You gotta watch the weather.
You gotta stay out of the way of the big ships.
But, you can just get in your boat and start sailing if you've
covered the big stuff in your plan. Work the rest out as conditions change.
You can't predict everything.
But you can sit on the dock fretting over the details and get nowhere.

You can't fix inaction.

Go ahead and try it. See what you project for China's economy and the
US economy 40 years from now. It's simple, right?

The purpose of action is to CAUSE a result.
China's economy is only a factor in ways that affect my objectives.
I seek a high level of satisfaction with the US standard of living
now and in the future. Ideally, that can be done in concert with
success in China by whatever metric they value.
If we can't to that, I'd be willing to sacrifice China. I'm selfish.

BTW, my son is just climbing down a ladder after re-roofing our
kitchen extension. Now he has to spend the rest of the day running his
latest predictive econometric model on his company's cloud-networked
SPSS system. He has a master's degree in math and a degree in
economics, and does econometric research and analysis for a top
consulting firm. I should let him talk to you,

I'm not even a little bit interested in hearing why we're in this pickle
or why it's a hard problem.
It'd be far better to have him talk to someone who can actually
make a difference.
I'm rather pessimistic. There'll be riots in the streets
before I'm seriously affected. I expect to be dead, or living in China,
long before that happens. ;-)

But I do enjoy a spirited discussion.

but I ate up his spare
time today by getting him to nail a square of shingles so I could
repair the furnace, which kept blowing out its pilot light, and then
watch TV. g