On 12/30/2014 7:03 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:

I just can't project that far ahead.

It's not rocket science. It's simple math.
The first order approximation to ANYTHING is to assume
the current trend continues at the same slope.
If you don't like the trend, saying you can't predict is not
helpful.

Decide first which trend you're going to follow. Ir it's changes in
GDP growth rates, in 40 years Americans will all be rich and the
Chinese won't have a pot to pee in.

'Not likely. It is not simple math. It's immensely complex.
I'm gonna disagree. The math is simple.
The hard part is deciding which crystal ball to use for the inputs.

Picking a metric and the five top things that affect that metric
and taking action is far superior to arguing about how difficult it is
and doing nothing.
You can fix an error in your actions.
You can't fix inaction.