On Mon, 29 Dec 2014 12:20:38 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:

On Mon, 29 Dec 2014 07:11:44 -0800, Larry Jaques
wrote:

On Mon, 29 Dec 2014 02:04:18 -0800, mike wrote:

On 12/28/2014 5:29 PM, John B. Slocomb wrote:
On Sun, 28 Dec 2014 15:08:49 -0800, mike wrote:

On 12/28/2014 1:18 PM, Larry Jaques wrote:
On Sat, 27 Dec 2014 22:26:29 -0800, mike wrote:

On 12/27/2014 9:44 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Sat, 27 Dec 2014 02:08:54 -0800, "Howard Beal"
wrote:


"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
Much snipped



I think you guys are 'way too pessimistic about the American economy,
and 'way too optimistic about the Chinese.

This is a long story, but the Chinese have been too slow to adopt
international standards of quality -- sewing a straight line on a
Louis Vuitton handbag is not a measure of manufacturing quality. And
now they're facing much higher transportation costs and a steep rise
in wages, with the Lewis Turning Point looming ahead. Like the
Japanese before them, they're losing their edge on cost, but without
the Japanese reputation for quality.

I talked with a Chinese representative of their tool-and-die industry
in Atlanta last month. I asked them if they could make decent D2 steel
yet. "Just barely," he said. Which puts them at a competitive parity
with the West...in about 1950.

The long-term goal for China is to be globally competitive at
competitive, not cut-rate, prices. They're hoping to accomplish
market-share inroads before their costs rise too much. So far, they're
not doing very well at that, in automobiles, industrial equipment, and
so on. There are factories in China turning out good products but
they're almost always run by Western companies, who are putting up
with horrible productivity in order to gain the labor-cost savings.
That will go away. Now their goal is to ride it out as the Chinese
domestic consumer market expands. Their economy *must* become more
consumption-based, or they're going to lose much of their export
market as their costs increase.

Meantime, US manufacturing has settled into a low but sustainable
percentage of our GDP. It's projected to grow in dollars, and slightly
in percentage of GDP, in coming years. The rest of our economy is
perking along mostly on services, and the labor-multiplier effect of
manufacturing is sufficient to sustain pretty good growth.

Our economy is doing well. It's employment that's at risk, largely
because of steady improvents in our productivity -- read "automation."
This will become a bigger social problem and we will have to address
it. But the solution will be much happier than you guys are imagining.
There is nothing in the economic dynamics that suggest we're going to
become a third-world country.

Do you remember Japan after WW II?

The Japanese did exactly what the Chinese are doing now, albeit on a
smaller scale, they leaped into foreign trade with what they could
manufacture and the words "Made in Japan" was a synonym for "Junk!".
Now look at them. The first Nikon FP camera was made in 1948 and by
the Korean war Nikon and Canon had become the preferred camera of most
news correspondents and Leica and Contax were headed down the slippery
slope.

Granted there are differences between Japan and China but at least in
certain industries, perhaps in many, there is a very definite intent
on improving.

A friend does fiberglass work on yachts and a Wholesaler in Bangkok
recently sent him some fiberglass cloth samples in an effort to
convince him to buy from them. It was really rough stuff with the
weave very uneven and a lot of knots where a strand had been spliced.
He sent the stuff back and included a sample of the Australian (I
believe) cloth that he uses. The Wholesaler called home to discuss the
matter and in the conversation the Wholesaler said that he had sent
the cloth back to the Chinese factory and they were very interested in
my friend's comments and would strive to do better and would send
improved samples at a later date.

Here there are many single cylinder, water cooled, diesel engines used
- they even "home build" built a small truck with them called a "Etan"
which originally was powered with Japanese made "Kubota" engine, see:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/percyv...7629962147807/
For an action shot see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AmeF4jV8gw
Today, they are nearly all powered with either a Chinese copy of the
Kubota, or a Chinese made Kubota as Kubota has established factories
in China in order to remain competitive.

I suspect that question is how much longer can the U.S. maintain its
current levels of income as more and more jobs move overseas. The
current unemployment rate in the U.S. is, I believe, 5.8% and it is
being bragged about. Thailand, on the other hand is 0.7.
--
Cheers,

John B.