On Sun, 21 Dec 2014 18:08:47 +0100, nestork
wrote:


For what it's worth, people should realize that Kim Jung Un is walking
on thin ice.

North Korea just recently announced that Un's first foreign visit as the
leader of North Korea will be to Moscow for talks with Putin.

That's significant because historically China has always been North
Korea's closest ally. Un's visiting Russia first, before he visits
China, is a clear indication that relations between China and North
Korea aren't as friendly as we previously thought them to be, and that's
it's a clear indication that North Korea is looking to Russia instead of
China for protection from the west.

It seems that China's leadership feels that Un is too inexperienced to
manage his country and his beligerance in threatening South Korea and
Japan (and the USA) may be causing unnecessary tension between China and
those same countries as well. Basically, the Chinese leadership is
giving Un the cold shoulder so that he doesn't presume that the Chinese
will always be there to help him. The Chinese want Un to realize that
he can't take their protection for granted.

Un visiting Russia almost certainly won't be fruitful. North Korea has
always been in China's back yard, and Russia has never had any interest
in North Korea. Russia offering military support to North Korea is
going to rub Chinese fur the wrong way. And, Russia is already up to
it's ears in problems backing the Assad regime in Syria. They really
don't want to have North Korea hanging onto their coat tails too,
especially with the recent drop in oil prices wrecking their economy.

The problem is that Un was taught beligerance by his father and grand
father. He sincerely believes that the only way to maintain North
Korea's supposed position as a world "power" is to always be at the
brink of war with South Korea (and as a result of international
alliances) the USA as well. Without that beligerance and ever present
threat to peace, North Korea would simply be dismissed as another
example of the failure of communism to provide a decent life for it's
people.

Almost certainly, if Un gets himself into a military confrontation with
South Korea, Japan or the USA, there's a real good chance that China
won't intervene because their leadership is thinking Un needs a lesson
in diplomacy, and he won't stop being a nuisance in the world until he
gets taught that lesson.

I think are mistaken about China. Un is used to stir **** up while
the Chinese sit back and laugh. If they wanted to put a leash on him,
they would stop giving oil / fuel for his military complex. Russia
sure isn't going to provide him oil / fuel anytime soon

...that's my rulin'