Quote:
Originally Posted by
I would like to create a challange for the climtae modellers. Create a small system that has some complex chaotic behaivor that can be accuratly measured. Lets see if the models can predict the future behior of this small system. Oh say, predict what number a rouleete wheel ball will land on. Think you can do that? Creating a model of the Earth's climate is a similar problem.
Mark
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Mark:
No, the surface of a roulette wheel has numerous protrusions on it's surface. The roulette ball hitting any of these would cause it to bounce, possibly into a different area of the wheel. Consequently, minute changes in the speed or timing of the roulette ball's release make a big difference in where the roulette ball winds up.
http://extremecasinoparties.com/roulette-wheel.jpg
I don't think it's reasonable to presume that the Earth's climate is THAT chaotic. If it were, then we couldn't tell with any degree of certainty when we would have summer or winter and how long those seasons would last. We could conceivably have -40 degree F temperatures for one week and then suddenly have +40 degree F temperatures the next. That's what can happen on a roulette wheel, but things aren't quite that chaotic in our weather.