On Friday, May 2, 2014 3:00:06 PM UTC-4, Robert Green wrote:
"trader_4" wrote in message

news:b74654aa-5c54-414f-bf99-



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Today CBS has been reporting that a possible wreck has been found in the

Bay

of Bengal, which is on the southern route.



You mean northern route.



Whoops. Yes.



I don't put much faith in this new report.

All they have is some image using some exotic new method from space

of something on the ocean floor. It's curious though that if this new

search method has merit, that we didn't hear about it before, it wasn't

used right away, etc.



If they're right it will be a black eye for Inmarsat and the doppler

"boffins" that chose the wrong pathway. I'm not very sanguine about it, but

anything's possible at this point. We're down to surveying every square

foot of the ocean and if the plane slid under deep ocean silt, the Bluefin

could scan all day and never see it. Considering all the wildly false leads

we've already had, the officials would be remiss not to check it out. They

seem to have a pretty good fix on the alleged position of the wreck.



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. . I think the intent was to put the aircraft down at Kora Bahru but

when

the plane got there, no one was left alive to do it. That's based on

there

being all these altitude and course changes within a very short span of

time

and then nothing. Just a long, lazy flight to nowhere.



But those altitude and heading changes continued long after it had

passed the closest it ever got to Kota Bahru. And it didn't head

for Kota Bahru, it passed well to the north of it. Worst of all, there

was no distress call. I don't know of a commercial airplane that ever

just showed up an an airport for an emergency landing without contact

with ATC. Nor one that had a such a major mechanical problem or fire

that resulted in the loss of VHF radios, ACARS, transponders, yet left

the plane capable of flying for another 7 hours. You're in the very small

minority that still thinks this

was some mechanical problem.



My opinion is based on two major points. One is that that model plane

already had had a serious oxygen-fed cabin fire on the ground that would

have been fatal to the entire plane if airborne. The second is that Boeing

had issued a repair order for the oxygen hoses and I don't believe that Air

Malaysia has any records indicating the fixes had been made.



A massive cockpit fire fatal to the entire plane would have the
place in the China Sea, where contact was lost, not flying in
controlled fashion, making precision turns and going to Australia.





In addition, there's some serious debate about whether the black boxes had

been replaced at the proper intervals. While the FAA and its European

equivalent make sure that such serious hazards are remediated in a

mostly-timely fashion (AF 440's pitot tubes being a notable and

crash-causing exception) I wonder if the Malaysians are as attentive to

details. The failure to replace the pinger batteries on time (if true)

could indicate lax maintainence. So I find it entirely credible that an

oxygen fed-fire raced through the cabin (where the hoses are routed) and

killed the air crew and perhaps everyone else on board.



Then the plane would be off Kota Bahru, not flying for another 7 hours.



While I may be in the minority, the fire theory is one that can be proved or

disproved pretty easily when and if the wreckage is found. Other theories

are going to be pretty hard to prove if the voice recorder recorded over the

critical moments when the plane turned. I've read recently that the CVR and

FDR can both stop recording if their busses are pulled or power to the units

are interrupted for some reason. The batteries only power the pingers, not

the recording functions. If true, the CVR could provide a lot of answers if

it's ever found and it stopped recording shortly after the "big turn."



The suicide theory bothers me because most suiciders don't dawdle. Why take

seven extra hours to kill yourself?

You're trying to apply rational thought process to someone with a
deranged and unstable mind. Plus, if it was a suicidal pilot, how
do you know when he died? He could have taken a bottle of sedatives
after leaving the Straits and having put the plane on a course to
Australia.




I still think the scenario of the pilot

hoping to force the government to release his buddy and let him leave the

country was the "ransom" demand, if any. That could account for a seven

hour delay in the crash - giving the government enough time to release the

pilot's friend and for him to radio the all clear from wherever he sought

asylum. And when he didn't, the pilot made good on his threat.

And no other aircraft heard any of all this communication? No one
involved has called up TMZ and leaked it all? And if he was waiting for
Malaysia to give him something, why was the plane on it's way to
Australian no-man's land, instead of circling Malaysia? This is just
bizarre speculation along the lines of Elvis being alive.



The worst

case scenario for the MG would be for anyone to find the plane and the CVR

if this was a hostage negotiation gone wrong. Would they deliberately

mislead searchers in hopes the wreckage would become waterlogged and sink?




The Malaysians aren't the ones telling the world where the plane went
down. Inmarsat, a British company is. Are they in on the conspiracy too?
The NTSB? FBI? FAA?


I just get the strong sense the MG has been tailoring its responses to match

any hard evidence that comes out outside of its control.



I'd really like to know how that company generated those images of the item

in the Bay of Bengal.



--

Bobby G.