In message , Gazz writes

There was a million to one chance of an immersion heater stat failing
closed, allowing the water to boil and exit the vent/expansion pipe
that loops over the plastic header tank in the loft,
was it a 2 million to one chance that in the bedroom below the header
tank was the baby in it's cot, asleep when the plastic tank ruptured
due to the water in it being brought upto boiling temps by the vent
pipe discharging it's boiling water into it for a few days?

you don't care much for million to one chances when you are that
millionth person,


I read about a lecturer taking a class and talking about probability.
The practical example went something along the lines of "would you take
a risk of 1 in a 1000?" Many answered "yes" so he produced a very
large jar of jelly beans and said that 1 had cyanide in it, then offered
them around the class, no one took one!

May or may not be true, but it does illustrate how peoples viewpoint
changes when it directly involves their own imminent death and
destruction.

Audi drivers excepted of course :-) they are immune to probability
and drive as though they are immortal, but that's a different thing all
together.

--
Bill