On 02/05/14 17:47, Adrian wrote:
So will PM Farage hold a referendum? Or will he say "Oh, OK. Well, since
we don't have a majority, we won't do anything about leaving the EU"?

And, if he does hold a referendum - and loses - will his government
immediately resign?

Interesting questions that I forgot to ask him tonight.

I think the answers need to be actually spelled out before 2015.


Whether YOU believe it or not, UKIPs policy is predicated on two basic
assumptions:

1/. That what UKIP want to do is not possible if we stay in the current EU.

2/. That the EU is constitutionally incapable of reform from inside.

If the EU did suddenly change its spots, there might be no reason to
leave it.

I think a UKIP government with a slender majority and about 40% of the
popular vote would be almost the worst possible outcome for UKIP.

All they could hope to achieve would be to use the government resources
to run a massive publicity campaign with most of the media against them,
until they felt they could get either 50%+ of the vote at a general
election or a referendum.

And with all the usual suspects from the left creating anarchy on the
streets egged on by their paymasters, it could be VERY divisive. Think
Thatcher/miners times 10.

Force majeuere - just doing it - might actually be the better option
and use the 5 years rule to stay in power long enough for people to get
used to it and realise it wasn't actually a problem after all.

If their electoral pledge was NOT a referendum, but 'if we get into
power we WILL DO IT', they could easily argue that if enough people
didn't want it, they could have placed their votes elsewhere.

And it was failure of the other parties to reach accomodation so that a
'vote for tory/labour' wasn't a 'vote for UKIP'.

Nigel is probably bold enough to go that route.

I think the wily fox will look at the polls in the run up to 2015 and
make up his mind then.

If UKIP look like getting anywhere near 'ukip largest party in
parliament' or even second largest, then I think Nigel might simply go
say 'if we are in parliament, in a majority we will exit, if we are in
position or in a balance of power, we will block everything from europe
we can and push for a referendum'

The danger from UKIPS perspective is that an EU exit might be reversed
if it goes wrong., The danger from the other parties POV is that it
night in fact go right, and there simply be no popular taste to re-enter
and the EU itself might not survive Brexit. Or might not offer re-entry.

IN a very real way 2015 will be your referendum on Europe. Straight in/out.

Vote UKIP for out, vote party with chance of beating them in your
constituency, to stay in.

If you think the EU is in fact the most important thing on the agenda.



--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.