On 02/05/14 14:07, Adrian wrote:
On Fri, 02 May 2014 12:48:53 +0000, Jethro_uk wrote:

But also, where's the clear blue water between the parties ? All have
the same stance on the EU, for example.

No, they don't.

The Tories have promised an in/out referendum if they form the next Gov't.
The LibDems are very pro.
Labour? Well, frankly, I'm not sure they know.

What if UKIP win the next election, but have a minority of the vote?
That's happened at every single general election since 1900, bar two. Yet

UKIP would take that _minority_ support as approval to leave the EU -
membership of which was supported by a majority at a referendum - to
leave the EU without any further consultation.

I don't think that UKIP could, on current geographical levels, win the
most seats in 2015 without the most votes.

Neither do I think that, unlike other parties in the past, they would
take say 38% of the vote as an automatic mandate to implement unilateral
action.


I think it would be far more likely they would use initially such few
powers as a national government has left to block and delay EU
legislations, and maybe even break a few EU rules and get fined, and
refuse to pay up, and use the access to media they would have, and the
access to top people in banking and commerce to thrash out an exit from
the EU (but if course not Europe) with full consent of the majority of
the people of this country.

Winning the election would the chance to say why and to demonstrate at
every turn, the government cant act, because the EU dictates.

UKIP in government would be the party of opposition to the EU in Europe,
and if it could get enough votes in a popular referendum to leave - 60%
maybe, then it would leave.

It would be pointless to simply leave and then realise that a reversal
of political fortunes would see us back in again.

UKIP in government is not the end game, but it is 'perhaps the beginning
of the end'.

The end game as far as UKIP are concerned is when a whole political
system is so discredited that another one has to be constructed in its
place, and obligingly the current disgraceful attacks by the other three
parties are demonstrating quite clearly to an increasing number of
people that UKIP have more than a small point when they describe them as
rotten to the core.

In the end UKIP probably represents a real threat to the continued
existence of the EU. They are by far and away the most popular and most
moderate Eurosceptic party. Britain will I suspect show the rest of
Europe how to either modify the EU until it is unrecognisable, or
destroy it completely, if it proves unable to reform itself.

It is hopeless to negotiate with the EU unless you have a negotiating
position that consists in stripping it of 30% of its income and 70% of
it's credibility by leaving it. And meaning it, and having a popular
mandate to do it and full support of the banking and corporate community
in so doing.

That has to be where UKIP sit down with the EU and talk terms.

Or sit down with other European nations and promise financial assistance
and trade deals if they too, leave. The republic of Ireland would be a
good place to start.

If Marine Le Pen gets ahold of France - not that I like her politics
much - she is someone we should do business with as well.


And the Scandinavians and the swiss, who are less in than out already.

Japan too, is a country we should be doing more business with, and
Canada and Australia.

In the end, once the lies and bull**** and narrow self interests are
stripped way there is either on balance a very good reason why we should
leave the EU, or why we should not.

UKIP I am sure would say, that its job is to strip away the lies and the
bull**** and expose the narrow self interest, in order that that debate
can be had,. After that, its up to the people to decide.

Right now, they don't have the choice. And a hell of a lot of them are
going to be putting their crosses in a box saying 'we want that choice'
even if they don't actually believe leaving the EU (but not Europe) is
actually necessarily the best thing.

Id say the centre ground in Britain is 'well we know all politicians are
lying scum, and maybe UKIP isn't quite so bad, but will we be worse off
if we leave?'

UKIPS task is not to win elections, though that helps, its to answer
that question and show why on balance the answer is 'no, you will in
time be far better off if we leave unless the EU absolutely changes its
spots.'

If Cameron said, and I could believe a word of it, that he would if
elected with am overall majority, immediately take us out of the EU,
then he would win the next election.

It remains to be seen whether Farage can on a slightly more moderate line.



--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.