On 4/2/2014 9:59 AM, micky wrote:
....

The more I think about this, the more things become clear. When the say
the difference is within the margin of error, is there a 95% chance the
guy who is ahead, is ahead? No. But I just realized that the chance
never goes below 50+%, because if it were lower than 50, the odds would
be that he is behind. And if his poll numbers exceed the other guy, the
odds are he's ahead, not behind.

Let's see if I can muddy it up, then...

The probability of the obverse being the true situation is a Type II
error...

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