On Wednesday, March 12, 2014 11:14:01 AM UTC-4, Robert Macy wrote:
On Tue, 11 Mar 2014 18:55:26 -0700,

wrote:



...snip...

But from what I've heard, all the misinformation, BS, it was flying

for 2 hours when contact was lost, it was flying for 40 mins when

contact was lost, etc, my best guess is that it went down off

Kohta Bura right where we know the data ended. Something sudden,

catastrophic,

that resulted in the plane losing power to the transponders, going

down mostly intact, near vertical, leaving little debris.



In early 60's a satellite could read the headlines of a paper lying on the

ground, so why is it so hard to NOT see this plane?



I think it depends on what you're looking for and when you're looking.
If you're focused to see ICBM launches, then maybe you don't see aircraft.
But US intel has said that it has good coverage there, checked what it
has and there is nothing they have that shows anything.




This region has to be one of the most monitored regions in the world.



Aren't there satellite imaging services that supply photos to the public?



Yes, and a couple of them have websites where you can go look
and help search. If you see something you can flag it and they will
evaluate it. I tried many times, but couldn't get on, there are
reports the sites crashed due to overload.





From memory flying IFR, you are radar tracked from start to finish, where

are those records? And from memory, alarms go off *IF* they lose track of

your little blip.

The data that is almost 100% certain is that the flight was on
normal radar, normal ADS-B, until 40 mins, when it was off Kohta
Baru, over water between Malaysia and Vietnam. AT that point it
made a slight ~5 deg turn to the right, which is what that flight
does at that waypoint every other day. That's where the normal
data end. The other bizarre thing here is that for two days,
Malaysian Airlines and I think Malaysian officials, said that they
lost contact with the plane 2 hours into the flight. That
first day, I quickly could see that something didn't make sense.
At two hours, on the normal route the plane would be well over
the middle of Vietnam.

Three days into it, Malaysian AF officials said they had some
evidence to suggest that it turned back toward land just after
it disappeared from normal ATC and that this was confirmed by civilian
radar. They then expanded the search area back toward Malaysia
and over to the other side of Malaysia. Fourth day, the media
reported that the head of the AF and another high level AF officer
told them that they had tracked the plane flying at a lower altitude
all the way across Malaysia again, headed northeast to
the Straits of Malacca where contact was lost. Curiously, that
would be at about the two hour point.... Fifth day, AF denies
ever saying they tracked it over to the Straits of Malacca, only
that they had some evidence that it might have turned back toward
land from the point where data stopped at 40 mins.

The problem is that if it was still flying, then it was doing so
with the transponders turned off. So, instead of getting a strong
return signal, that also has the altitude, heading, squak code, etc,
all they would see would be a basic radar blip. How far their radar
coverage extends, what they should or shouldn't be able to see at
the point where the plane contact ended, by civilian and military
etc, no one has said. Good questions, and you would think reporters
would be asking.

To add to that confusion, on the day the plane was lost, right
after making that slight turn, it would have normally been in
contact with and under the control of Vietnam ATC. They said
the first day that they lost contact with it between the airspace
over Ca Mau which is southern tip area of Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh,
which would have put it at about 1.5 hours into it's flight.
But then next day they said it disappeared a minute before it would
have entered their airspace, ie near where the data ended, ie 40 min
point.

So... your guess is as good as mine. I'm leaning towards it's
in the water near where the data ended and everyone is just all
screwed up. I'd say it's time to start showing the radar returns
that they have. I can understand why the military might not want
to fully divulge what they can and can't see. But in this case
I don't see how it could get worse. It looks like you can fly a 777
across Malaysia and they don't know WTF is going on.