wrote in message news:1bcef9a6-c8ae-45b3-a3b9-

stuff snipped

But I agree with your overall assessment that the damage to the
wing from the prior accident should be high on the list. Previously
I was thinking of it from the standpoint that it was just a few feet
of the wing that was ripped off and then repaired. If just that had
come off, I would think the plane would likely fly for a long time,
probably even able to make a landing. It didn't involve a control
surface. But I hadn't thought about
the possibility that you're suggesting, that the accident could have
damaged where the wing spar attaches to the fuselage.

Here's a new data point:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mis...ng-777s-n50591

A cracking and corrosion problem on Boeing 777s that could lead to the
mid-air break-up of the aircraft prompted a warning from air safety
regulators weeks before the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370,
federal records show.
The Federal Aviation Administration ordered checks on hundreds of
U.S.-registered 777s after reports of cracking in the fuselage skin
underneath a satellite antenna.

In an airworthiness directive, it said the extra checks were needed "to
detect and correct cracking and corrosion in the fuselage skin, which could
lead to rapid decompression and loss of structural integrity of the
airplane."

The directive, first drawn up in September, was approved in February and was
due to take effect on April 9.

Sounds a little too much like Airbus/AirFrance being warned that the pitot
tubes could freeze over and then taking their sweet time about replacing the
units throughout the fleet.

Unfortunately as the planes age, all sorts of material failure modes raise
their ugly heads.

--

Bobby G.