An interesting article, but self-contradictory:

"The increase in total construction time, indicated in Fig. 2, from 7
years in 1971 to 12 years in 1980 roughly doubled the final cost of
plants. In addition, the EEDB, corrected for inflation, approximately
doubled during that time period. Thus, regulatory ratcheting, quite
aside from the effects of inflation, quadrupled the cost of a nuclear
power plant."

This seems specious to me - he's stating the same thing in two
different ways and adding them 'both' in. This is borne out by Fig 1,
where it is shown that rather than quadrupling, actually the cost just
over doubled during the period in question, and this was in line with
inflation:

"the consumer price index increased only by a factor of 2.2 between
1973 and 1983"

Next self-contradiction ...

"Ask the opponents of nuclear power and they will recite a succession
of horror stories, many of them true, about mistakes, inefficiency,
sloppiness, and ineptitude. They will create the impression that
people who build nuclear plants are a bunch of bungling incompetents.
The only thing they won't explain is how these same "bungling
incompetents" managed to build nuclear power plants so efficiently, so
rapidly, and so inexpensively in the early 1970s."

.... but ...

"Changing plans in the course of construction is a confusing process
that can easily lead to costly mistakes. The Diablo Canyon plant in
California was ready for operation when such a mistake was discovered,
necessitating many months of delay."

.... and ...

"There was a well-publicized situation on Long Island where a load of
pipe delivered from a manufacturer did not meet size specifications.
Instead of returning it and losing precious time, the pipe was
machined to specifications on site, at greatly added expense."

To me it seems facile to blame such mistakes upon the regulatory
environment. Further ...

"A major source of cost escalation in some plants was delays caused by
opposition from well-organized "intervenor" groups that took advantage
of hearings and legal strategies to delay construction."

.... again, this has nothing to do with the regulatory environment,
which was implied by placing it in a section entitled "Regulatory
Turbulence". (And, incidentally, similarly techniques are being
widely used by anti-AGW groups funded by such people as the Heartland
Institute, so TNP calling attention to this by linking to the wider
article is a case of pots and kettles).

"In summary, there is a long list of reasons why the costs of these
nuclear plants were higher than those estimated at the time the
projects were initiated. Nearly all of these reasons, other than
unexpectedly high-inflation rates, were closely linked to regulatory
ratcheting and the turbulence it created."

As above, the author fails to make a robust case for this. It is
ironic that the very next line is:

"But what about the "best experience" plants that avoided these
horrendous cost escalations."

Quite! What about them?! Thereafter he completely ignores them and
concentrates only on the worst experiences!

And the next paragraph begins:

"Perhaps the most important cause of cost variations was the human
factor."

And that, it seems to me, is the root of the problem - not so much
over regulation, as good old human incompetence. Not forgetting the
further regulation that resulted from Three Mile Island, you have to
remember also that the generation that built the first nuclear power
plants had just fought and won a very tough war, an experience that
moulds the characters of those lucky enough to survive, whereas the
generation that built the next wave was diluted by people of my own
generation bought up 'soft' in the post war years, without the
hardening experience of having to fight and think in long-term
logistical terms to ensure survival of the nation.

On Mon, 21 Oct 2013 21:06:02 +0100, The Natural Philosopher
wrote:

the real cost in in regulatory ratchetting.(government interference)

this is the most thorough analysis I have seen.

http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc/book/chapter9.html
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