On 9/24/2013 1:05 PM, Bill wrote:
wrote:
On Tue, 24 Sep 2013 11:12:42 -0500, Leon wrote:

"Lew Hodgett" wrote:
"Lew Hodgett" wrote:

My guess is that in 10 years or less, the majority of vehicles
manufactured will be electric.
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wrote:

I'm not quite that optimistic, but I can envision it happening
within
the next quarter century. With entrepreneurs like Tesla fully
committed to electric vehicle promotion, it will happen sooner than
later. Add onto that the fact that the Tesla *looks damned good*
IMHO,
the electric car field has nowhere to go except up.
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That 10 year number comes from the industry itself, not me,
I'm just the messenger.

Lew
Well first Lew, you say "your guess" is that in 10 years or less the
"majority" of vehicles will be electric. Now you say this number comes
from the industry.
That industry naturally will make that claim, it's make it or break it
time. That industry needs an enormous infusion of cash from
investors to
be able to mass produce a vehicle that will actually perform and go the
distance and be at least equal in amenities as the much much lower price
vehicles available right now with gasoline/diesel engines.

I hope that 10 years is a realistic and achievable time frame but I
don't
see the trend growing that fast. It seems to be growing fast
because of
all of the attention it is getting but I am still seeing, in Houston,
the
vast majority of new vehicles being equipped with the traditional
internal
combustion engine. Many more hurdles will have to be over come
before the
"majority of new vehicle buyers make the switch.
My bet is that in ten years there will be FEWER electric and hybrid
cars on the market than there are now. Cars won't be smaller or get
much better mileage and barring (even more) government meddling, gas
won't be much more expensive in a decade, either. Two decades, even.

Mercedes, IIRC, suggests they will have a "self-driving car" by the end
of the decade. I expect an increase in mass transit, and fewer cars. A
self-driving car would seem to support various forms of "sharing".

Not a stretch, GM was playing with this idea some 15~20 years ago with
sensors built into the highway that guided the vehicle. And today some
vehicles will automatically parallel park.





Already a system is currently going up in Indianapolis, where you can
"share" an electric car--dropping it off at one of numerous designated
recharge stations.


share a car?? As in leave your vehicle and take some one else's?

I would not, maybe you would, be OK with lending my vehicle to a
stranger and I cant begin to fathom the liability issues associated with
this arrangement.