DIYbanter - View Single Post - OT Yes the creep keeps rising and you cannot stop it

Leon[_7_]

On 9/24/2013 12:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 24 Sep 2013 11:12:42 -0500, Leon wrote:

"Lew Hodgett" wrote:
"Lew Hodgett" wrote:

My guess is that in 10 years or less, the majority of vehicles
manufactured will be electric.
--------------------------------------------------
wrote:

I'm not quite that optimistic, but I can envision it happening
within
the next quarter century. With entrepreneurs like Tesla fully
committed to electric vehicle promotion, it will happen sooner than
later. Add onto that the fact that the Tesla *looks damned good*
IMHO,
the electric car field has nowhere to go except up.
------------------------------------------------------
That 10 year number comes from the industry itself, not me,
I'm just the messenger.

Lew

Well first Lew, you say "your guess" is that in 10 years or less the
"majority" of vehicles will be electric. Now you say this number comes
from the industry.

That industry naturally will make that claim, it's make it or break it
time. That industry needs an enormous infusion of cash from investors to
be able to mass produce a vehicle that will actually perform and go the
distance and be at least equal in amenities as the much much lower price
vehicles available right now with gasoline/diesel engines.

I hope that 10 years is a realistic and achievable time frame but I don't
see the trend growing that fast. It seems to be growing fast because of
all of the attention it is getting but I am still seeing, in Houston, the
vast majority of new vehicles being equipped with the traditional internal
combustion engine. Many more hurdles will have to be over come before the
"majority of new vehicle buyers make the switch.

My bet is that in ten years there will be FEWER electric and hybrid
cars on the market than there are now. Cars won't be smaller or get
much better mileage and barring (even more) government meddling, gas
won't be much more expensive in a decade, either. Two decades, even.

That is entirely possible too. In 1975 I bought an Oldsmobile Starfire
with a 3.8L V6, Vega/Pinto sized car. 110 HP. I got 25 mpg on the
highway, top speed around 95 mph

In August of last year I bought my wife a 2012 Camry SE with 3.5L V6,
268 HP and pretty much loaded. Top speed is supposed to be about 130
governor limited, nope I have not seen this but don't doubt the capability.

This past spring we took a few days off with come close friends, 4 of
us, on a 2 night away trip. The trunk was full of luggage.

Shortly after getting to highway speed, which I maintained with cruise
control for 1 hour, I zeroed the computer and after 1 hour of driving we
stopped for a break. Actually not really a break but the women saw a
store 6 miles down the road and we were going to stop, IYKWIM.
We went 72 miles in that hour and used 2 gallons of gas.

In town driving we average 26 MPG.