"Lew Hodgett" wrote:
"Leon" wrote:

Tesla is going to have to cut pricing by 2/3 to have a serious
alternative
to gasoline vehicles. The bigger less expensive vehicle that will
go long
distances will drive the market.
---------------------------------------------------------
Tesla is already committed to producing a vehicle that will sell
for about $30K within 3-5 years.

Committed. But that still is not yet a reality. Oldsmobile was committed
to build a Diesel engine. GM was committed to build a competitive small
car, Saturn. Karmen Fiscar was committed. The question will be, will they
be able to produce a vehicle that buyers will want at 1/3 their current
price and still be able to remain in business selling that cheaply in as
little as 3~5 years. It is only if the masses find the cheaper vehicle to
be at least equal to the traditional vehicles will that vehicle have a
chance of succeeding.




Since the average daily auto trip is about 29 miles, per Nissan,
long distances are the exception, not the rule.

Seriously, 29 is not even in the ball park for any relative big, not large
city, commuter. I was in the automotive business for most all of my
professional career and in particular in the repair end of the dealership
business. 32 miles a day every day is just under 12,000 moles a year.
When you see a vehicle that is only driven that distance it is considered a
below average low mileage vehicle. 24,000 miles a year is the actual
normal mileage that is placed on a vehicle and as one would expect a
majority of those miles are going to and from work. Since the 5 day work
week excludes weekend driving those a majority of those 24,000 miles are
racked up in 250 ish days vs 365 days. Now the daily travel distance for
the average city driver goes up to almost 100 miles a day.

While Nissan claims that the average auto trip is 29 miles a day I highly
suspect that what they are not telling you is that the average daily trip
for a Leaf driver will be 29 miles a day.




200 miles between recharge is already here.


And not as affordable as a gasoline equally equipped vehicle. Hell, those
experimental solar electrics go 1,000 miles in the desert but they too are
not yet affordable or practice.

I'm not saying that I'm against electrics but being a realist and observing
what is actually happening vs what the media wants to report I am looking
at what the electrics are going to have to offer that will be an advantage
over the competition before you see any majority shift in how the vehicle
is fueled.

Economy has not been addressed in this thread.

A KWH of power generated by an internal combustion engine is
considerably more expensive than a KWH produced by a fixed utility.

Reduced operating costs help to offset initial costs.

And I will add to that, 10 plus years ago it was a reality that a an
electric powered motor was 4 times efficient to power vs an internal
combustion engine. Read that as the electric only required 1/4 the energy
as the gasoline consumes to produce the same amount of power.

BUT a battery pack for storing generated electricity is countless times
more expensive than a gasoline fuel tank and today the capacity of the
electric power storage is 25~35% of the average energy stored in a gasoline
fuel tank.

And then finally, the biggest obstacle for the all electric vehicle is the
time it takes for replenishing to a full charge vs the five minutes it
takes to refuel a gasoline tank.

Unfortunately for the electrics is that they are going to end up at home
for recharging. It is next to impossible to consider it to be a practice
alternative for driving from Houston to the next largest city and back in
the same day. That fact in itself will be one of the deal breakers..










Lew