On Fri, 6 Sep 2013 09:07:50 -0700 (PDT), "
wrote:
On Friday, September 6, 2013 9:47:00 AM UTC-4, Ed Huntress wrote:
So I thought the topic was about whether a hgh or low Gini number made a difference.
It is. But you can read what he said either way. Here's what he said:
And yet you seem not to be concerned with the general case, but instead only want to discuss the U.S. economy.
That's what we were talking about -- the rising income disparities in
the US, and the implications of IMF and other research from other
countries for the US economy.
There isn't much to be applied to the US, from the experience of a
relatively poor economy where over 50% of the workers are involved in
farming.
So you are trying to restrict the discussion to a single country instead of discussing the general case. So cherry picking the data.
I'm not tryint to "restrict" anything. I'm talking about the subject
we were discussing.
Now I am really confused. First you say the subject is about whether a hgh or low Gini number made a difference. And then you say it is only about the U.S. economy related to the Gini number. You need to be less parochial. If the Gini number makes a difference it ought to make a difference regardless of the country. If it is country dependent then there must be other factors involved.
Dan
======================
In something as convoluted and arcane as economics and
society there are always other factors involved. However
across time and a number of countries, where accurate data
is available, high GINI indices highly correlate with low
quality of life metrics. I am including reasonable economic
stability and level as an important QoL metric.
One branch of statistics called multiple regression can
estimate the [relative] size of the effect each independent
variable has on the dependent variable. It can determine
correlation but *NOT* causality, i.e. which is the cause and
which is the effect, or if a third unidentified factor,
which is actually the causal factor, is effecting both.
This is where subject matter expertise, critical analysis
and plausible models are essential.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_multiple_regression
As far as not extrapolating from smaller countries, and
implicitly assuming the US is immune from the socio-economic
and fiscal/financial factors that effect others, this is
called exceptionalism, as in "the rules/trends/correlations
don't apply to me and mine," which is a time proven recipe
for disaster at the individual, corporate [e.g. GM, Bear
Sterns, Lehman Brothers] and national [e.g. Rome, Spain,
France, Netherlands, Germany, UK] levels.
The difference between a large and small country, where an
actual socio-economic/fiscal relationship exists
between/among factors is the magnitude of the causal
factor(s) [which may depend on how it is measured/expressed
i.e. absolute v relative/percent] required to trigger an
effect, how quickly an effect becomes apparent, and how
quickly (and if) the country can recover.
FYI
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/inte...ewsrelease.htm
snip
In July, the goods deficit increased $4.5 billion from June
to $58.6 billion, and the services
surplus decreased $0.1 billion from June to $19.4 billion.
Exports of goods decreased $1.1 billion
to $132.7 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.4
billion to $191.3 billion. Exports of
services were virtually unchanged at $56.7 billion, and
imports of services increased $0.1 billion
to $37.3 billion.
snip
Do the math and this is an annualized rate of (58.6-19.4)*12
= 39.2*12 or 470.4 BILLION$. This is on top of the national
budget deficit. The cumulative trade deficit [dating back
some 35 years] dwarfs the official national debt. We are
playing with fire, everyone is about to get burned...