On Thu, 22 Aug 2013 14:49:03 +0100, Tim Streater
wrote:

FACT: as I write this, our wind fleet is producing 0.3GW. That's a
shortfall of some 3.7GW, assuming the fleet is rated at 4GW (a shortfall
of 4.7 is you assume 5).

Since every pronouncement from wind proponents says that this or that
new addition to the wind fleet will produce enough power for x number of
homes, and since those x homes need power 7x24, it seems reasonable to
expect that the wind fleet produce power 7x24, at the rated output.
That's what we, the public, have been sold.

Any shortfall, therefore, should result in a rebate and questions asked,
f'rinstance as to why wind appears unable to emulate good reliable old
nuclear, which *has* been producing over 9GW for some considerable time
now, day in, day out.

Perhaps Java Jive could tell us where the country should apply to for
its rebate due to apparent unreliability of wind generation.


The provisioned connection capacity from wind farms into the national grid that
is operationally metered is 7136MW. There is other wind generation that is
embedded in the distribution networks but the extent and the output of this
generation is not monitored or reported via a credible mechanism.

The total of all wind turbines connected via the national grid and declared as
available is more or less 6000MW at the moment rising to 6500MW by the year end

Those are all figures you can rely on

At 0.3GW the 5000* turbines (renewables UK figure) are producing less than half
what one of the six units at Drax can produce reliably round the clock.

So where the actual output is 0.3GW the shortfall due to the intermittency of
wind, poor reliability and delays in getting the poxy things built is between
5700 and 6836 MW, or in other terms around a Drax, a Fiddlers Ferry and a
Rugeley, or around 4 billions quids worth of capital required to bridge that
shortfall (finger in the air estimate based on the market cap of Drax and cost
of recently constructed gas generation)

With an average domestic load of 400W that shortfall is equivalent to somewhere
between 14.25 and 17 million households. With 26.4 million households in the
UK (ONS 2012 figures) , then, ignoring all commercial and industrial load we
would have the lights on in only 35% of them without the wonder of coal, nuclear
and gas.

P.S. renewables UK are currently claiming 6374MW onshore and 3653MW offshore, a
total of 10027MW total capacity pointing to an embedded generation total of
around 2.9GW

http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/uk-wind-energy-database/index.cfm


--