On 11/12/12 14:48, The Other Mike wrote:
On Tue, 11 Dec 2012 02:49:42 +0000, The Natural Philosopher
wrote:


Oddly the way gas prices are going they may actually de-mothball the
oil. On balance its not a lot more emissions intensive than gas, and
bunker oil is cheap as chips what with ships being laid up and all.

There is a LOT of mothballed plant that COULD be put back online if the
government stuck two fingers up at the EU and the greens.

There is not that much that is mothballed. Fawley was originally 2GW but 1GW of
that hasn't run for the best part of a decade. The whole place is permanently
closing in a few months. Grain has 1.3GW mothballed with 1.3GW available until
end of 2015 , Littlebrook 1GW mothballed, 1GW available until 2015, Kingsnorth
has nearly run out of hours under LCPD. That covers the English oil generation.
Scotland has Peterhead but there are severe constraints on export across into
England.

As ar as coal is concerned Ironbridge at 1GW is running out of hours under the
LCPD and Didcot A 2GW is going at the end of March 2013.

Yes. The real **** hits the fan when the old coalers go. Still the good
news is the nukes are going to run till they fall to pieces (well until
they are beyond economic repair anyway) 2023 IIRC.

Some like Wylfa (the last of the Magnox's) 0.5GW are shutting much sooner than
that, almost certainly this coming year. Others will go before 2019 (Heysham 2
1.2GW, Hartlepool 1.2GW, Hinkley Point B 0.9GW) Dungeness B 1GW probably about
the same time, Hunterston B 1GW is now 2023 as is Torness 1.3GW. Sizewell B
1.2GW is currently 2035

So that leaves just 3.5GW of nukes post 2019, and 1.2GW post 2023. A f*cking
disgrace.

My bet is that we will either have left the EU or will simply cry 'force
majeure' and run a lot of old coal and oil and nuclear anyway. The
emissions to BUILD new plant probably exceed the emissions in keeping
the old plant going.

Recession and sky high prices will drive demand down. The folly of
privatisation and the dash for gas is coming to bite the UK and destroy its
economy.


There is an election coming up in 2015... I would bet that by that time
there wont be much of an EU, and the LCP directive will be ignored.

And catastrophic climate change will be all about an impending little
ice age.,


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.