In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote:

When I read about the problem both Massachusetts and Holland had, I began to
wonder why the cost estimates were so off. I suspect part of it could be
pent-up demand for services. When uninsured people first get to a doctor or
dentist, there's often more than one thing wrong with them. My wife tells me
that's unfortunately quite true of Army recruits from the really deep
boondocks. There's lots of snipping and such for them and even the Army's
equivalent of a good worming. More than a few have signs of poor nutrition.
She's told me how some of them were nearly speechless because they were able
to eat until they were full for the first time in their lives. We Internet
denizens often forget how lucky we are.

That might be an explanation if it was just the first couple of
years. MCare cost estimates are STILL off by multiple percentage points
even after all these years. I am torn between just bad models or people
deliberately trying to fudge the numbers (If the latter I am then torn
between directly fibbing or just a bureaucrat trying to give the boss
the numbers he or she wants).



Also, sick and uninsured people from other states probably tend to gravitate
towards a state offering the plan Massachusetts did. I've been looking but
have yet to find any indication of how long people on the plan were
residents of the state. I know of one Pakistani who came here expecting
free medical treatment. I suspect there's a similar force operating at the
state level.


Might be. There is ample evidence of people gravitating toward higher
food stamp and MCaid benefit states. But I see no census evidence of a
mass migration, we aren't talking about a few thousand here or there to
throw the numbers off by that much.

--
People thought cybersex was a safe alternative,
until patients started presenting with sexually
acquired carpal tunnel syndrome.-Howard Berkowitz