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Hawke[_3_]

On 2/20/2012 12:49 PM, wrote:
On Feb 20, 2:40 pm, wrote:

In his presentation he said all the economists including the CBO got it
wrong in predicting the financial and economic crisis we just went
through. I say that is proof of the "magnificent" job economics does in
predicting the future. In short, it stinks. So keep that in mind next
time Pimpton tells you how great economics is a predicting, because it
ain't.

Hawke

But you do note that Congress believes it is worthwhile to have a
CBO. So that means that a lot of people think economics is worth
studying. And even if the miss the mark, they generally get the
direction that the economy will take. You are right they do not get
their predictions exactly right, but you have to remember that
thousands of people read what the CBO says and that changes what
happens.

Dan

It's the best we have. But my point is that even our best isn't very
good at making economic predictions. They are as often wrong as they are
right and they miss the huge events as often as the man on the street.
So I think I've made my point that even the best economists aren't very
good at seeing the future. And I'm not down on economics as a field of
study either. I think it has a lot to offer. But it has a lot of
shortcomings too, which some folks don't seem to know. My father has an
economics degree from the University of Illinois so that ought to tell
you something about what my family thinks about economics.

Hawke