Swingman wrote in
:

On 1/24/2012 11:16 AM, Han wrote:

Not true. If the chances of anyone having an accident are X, then
having had no accidents doesn't increase your chances. That's
elementary in statistics. Roll 2 dice. You can calculate the
chances for snake-eyes, if nobody tampered with the dice. The next
time you roll those same dice, the chances for snake eyes are the
same. Now, the chances for rolling snake eyes some time increase
with the number of rolls allowed.

Personally, I prefer Bayesian probability over maturity of chances.
LOL!

I wasn't trying to say that in the course of using powertools one doesn't
either get more complacent or more experienced/careful. Due to the few
not so good experiences, I'm more careful now than earlier in life ...

And looking up Bayesian probability, I got confused early on, so quit
further "research" on that subject ... grin.

--
Best regards
Han
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