On 1/24/2012 11:16 AM, Han wrote:

Not true. If the chances of anyone having an accident are X, then having
had no accidents doesn't increase your chances. That's elementary in
statistics. Roll 2 dice. You can calculate the chances for snake-eyes,
if nobody tampered with the dice. The next time you roll those same
dice, the chances for snake eyes are the same. Now, the chances for
rolling snake eyes some time increase with the number of rolls allowed.

Personally, I prefer Bayesian probability over maturity of chances. LOL!

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