DIYbanter - View Single Post - 13 countries that pay higher mfg. salaries than the US

dpb

On 12/31/2011 3:46 PM, wrote:
On Dec 31, 8:47 am, wrote:

So, you can't really say there's not manipulation in ag markets, either,
... although they do buy on the open market and the size of their import
buying does affect the grain markets and the projection of yields during
growing season affects the futures markets as does that of the other
major producing areas.

Ah real numbers , but perhaps not numbers that are real. I did not
realize that China produced as much wheat as your figures show. But
most of my argument still stands as China does not export wheat ( or
at least i think that is right ).

The numbers are USDA-reported massaged from what sources there are
available. That there's some fudge in production numbers is likely, but
we're talking in percentages, not overall ranking kinds of numbers.
There's no doubt and has been for quite a long time that the total
production in China is half again that of the US in average US years;
about double in last two owing to serious drought conditions through
much of the US wheat belt. The _quality_ of Chinese wheat isn't that of
the US (#1 world-wide w/o question for hard winter wheat, the stuff of
bread for human use) and much is used internally for livestock feed as
opposed to human use.

But no, that China doesn't export wheat is not right, either. It's part
of the manipulation. They're a _net_ importer, but that doesn't mean
they don't export as well. They're fairly variable in quantities, but
over last decade have exported an average of roughly 1,500,000 metric
tonnes (that's 55,000 bu. in perhaps more recognizable units; a bushel
of wheat is 60 lb) annually. A chunk of that goes to help prop up the N
Koreans altho I don't have a breakdown of how much that is.

I figure that projections of yields and size of import buying are
things that happen in free markets. The stock market is something
that I consider as being a free market, but it does not mean that
people do not try to out smart others.

Sorta' yes, sorta' no...there are import duties against US ag products
of sizable magnitude in many places--the importance of the S Korean and
Colombia and some other S American trade agreements that the
administration _finally_ allowed to be approved have put in place a
framework over next 3 to 5 years most of those will decrease
significantly or even go away entirely. _THEN_ there will be more
nearly a free market in those particular commodities in those particular
markets, but there's been little progress w/ China as one example of
where they're not really that level even thought there are sizable
exports going on anyway.

Disclosure--SW KS wheat/milo/cattle farmer...

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