Robert Green wrote:

Geez. Where've you been, bub? The buzz around the Pentagon is
*when* we are going into Iran, not *if* we are. The troops are
coming back only temporarily. They'll be headed out to Iran real
soon now. For all we know, we dropped a drone gutted of anything
really important just to spark a "dialog" with the Iranians before we
invade. They're going to have a bomb, it's only a question of time.
Each time there's a Stuxnet virus or "accidental" missile blast, the
Iranians dig their nuke assets in deeper. It's only a matter of time
before the workers are no longer allowed to leave the compounds since
the Israelis have been engaging in "shoot the nuke worker commuter"
activities. They'll get there because a lot of Islamic money is
pouring into Iran from all over the world.

Meh! Even I know WHEN and WHO!

Shortly after the 1st of the new year, as all American and allied forces
leave, there will be NO air defenses remaining in Iraq. Transiting Iraq is
the shortest distance between Israel and Iran. With no interceptor fighters
or credible ground-to-air defenses, an Israeli air raid will be a cake walk.


The intel community once again failed by letting such technology
fall into the wrong hands. Where was the self-destruct? We may
have saved the Chinese 10 years of R&D work on sensor technology.
As one journalist wrote: "There's probably no room left on this
week's flights from China and Russia to Iran."

I agree. We can't, however, discount the possibility the drone was a
Trojan Horse. It may have, for example, circuits that broadcast its
position and we really, really, hope the Chinese copy it.

We fed the Sovs hinky oil refinery software that ended up causing the
largest refinery explosion in human history, so they say. The
Iranians apparently already swallowed one trojan, the Stuxnet virus
designed to explode their centrifuges. The problem is, we're not
slowing them down as fast as they are moving forward. I don't
believe they are a credible *nuclear* threat to us other than supply
material for a dirty bomb. But they have delivery systems to make
life in a 300 mile radius a very nasty idea.

I'm also afraid that a nuke bomb appeals to the Islamic Fundamentalist
Jihadists in the same way it did the mutants in "Beneath the Planet
of the Apes." It has taken on a magical quality just by virtue of
our demanding they never have one. I am certain the Iranians want to
be the first to possess a fiery nuclear sword of Allah. Hoo boy.
This isn't fantasy, either. The Pakistanis have nukes and they're
about as stable as Paris Hilton after a bottle of Stoli. My bet is
that before they bomb Americans, they'll use it on Iraq and/or Israel
first. If the model of 1929 holds firm, we'll be in a major war by
2019.

The president probably vetoed the plans because most grown-ups know
about sovereignty and international law and how even our allies are
losing patience with our constant violations of those laws. There
are always those who have a different, somewhat more unusual
mindset. Like people who apparently think anyone carrying anything
in a Home Depot parking lot is a crazed assassin.

Any country that subsumes its own national interests to
international "law" or encomiums soon loses its ability to be called
a "nation."

Nonsense. The Israelis used international law to tremendous advantage
during the birth of Israeli and during other wars, suing for precise
peace terms in the UN while vastly improving their on-the-ground
tactical picture. There are at least two books written about how they
used the UN's rules and procedures as effectively as an entire
military division.

What do you think we would do if the Chinese started flying drones
over our top-secret military labs and we shot one down? Invite
their ambassador by for tea and muffins while shipped the drone
back to China?

Oh, it's happened. When Victor Belenko flew his MIG-25 "Foxbat" to
Japan and defected, the CIA took charge of the aircraft and shipped
it back to the Soviet Union! Regrettably, the CIA did not have any
packing boxes larger than about one cubic foot, so they had to
disassemble the plane, but back to the Soviet Union it did go.

The Chinese helped us the same way, IIRC, by crating up our EP3 on
Hainan. Word is that we did NOT destroy all the ELINT and crypto gear
before they boarded.

U.S. Navy engineers said the EP-3 could be repaired in 8-12 months,
but China refused to allow it to be flown off Hainan island. The
disassembled aircraft was released on July 3, 2001, and was returned
to the United States by the Russian airline Polet in an Antonov
An-124-100. It was eventually reassembled and returned to duty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident

Bush and Obama both did the smart thing. The incident may have been
meant to remind them that any time we want we can create a reason to
enter Iran. In this case, the loitering drones feed back important
"daily activity" information - which is why I believe commuting to
work is all over for Iranian nuke scientists.

International law clearly isn't your strong suit, HeyBub. There's
actually quite a bit of law about spy planes, spies and recovery
rights. All part of the great "rule of law" concept so popular
among civilized humans. Most sane people try to avoid
confrontation. A few seemingly sane people appear to go looking
for it.

International law may not be my strong suit, but I did dip my toe in
the water on this subject while in law school. International
treaties, particularily the "Law of the Sea" treaty is quite
specific: Property of one county that ends up in the control of a
second country MUST be returned to the original owner. To not do so
is defined as "piracy." This fairly common occurrance takes place
when a ship, through malfunction or impending weather, finds itself
in the harbor of some country not its own.

Spy law is different. You're talking about non-military, peaceful and
accidental incursions. As you may recall Israel was able to turn back
flotillas by establishing their potential military threat.

I once dated a woman who was on a helicopter crew assigned to black
ops that landed in the wrong place due to a maintenance problem that
they cleared on the ground. They sat their for 3 days while
diplomats did their thing. As you may be aware, these "incidents"
usually end up as "swap" opportunities and before they could go
airborn, the Sovs demanded the release of someone we were holding.
International law facilitates these sorts of exchanges so most
non-savage nations roughly abide by them. The precedents that you
and I have both quoted implies we'll probably get it back - if we
want it (if it's not a trojan) and if it's really even ours - when
all their new Chinese and Soviet visitors this week have had a chance
to inspect it. We may indeed get it back in a box. We may have a
device in the unit that will reveal the location of their top secret
weapons labs. Who knows?

But we're much better off with them holding a drone than a recon
plane with a pilot. The power of the drone is that they can shoot
all they want "we'll make more." I forget how many drones you can
buy for the cost of an old Blackbird, but it's a C5A load. It was
only a matter of time before we lost one. The CIA drone program is
still classified TS and they don't admit to using them. For all we
know this is the 10th that's gone down. Most other finders wouldn't
be admitting to it like Iran. They would be selling it to the
highest bidder very quietly.

There is no law or treaty of which I'm aware governing spy planes or
recovery rights other than the host has NO claim to the plane, ship,
or any other vehicle, cargo, or humans aboard. If you can point to
one such law, I'd be very grateful.

My days of researching law for internet "clients" passed a long time
ago. (-: I merely invite you to examine the few exhanges we've
discussed in this thread and you'll see that these things proceed
very much the same way every time. IIRC, it may have been part of
the United Nations Treaty regarding the EEZ's and coastal borders.
Oh hell, if I am going to ding you, I suppose I have to prove it:

http://www.southchinasea.org/docs/Te...t%20Hainan.htm

Perhaps most importantly, however, is that UNCLOS discloses that
anything "not for peaceful purposes"(19) , including non-innocent
passage, (or overflight) is not permitted anywhere in the world,
including in the EEZ or on the high seas.(20) This appears from
article 87, which stipulates, "Freedom of the high seas is exercised
under conditions laid down by this Convention..."'(21) and article
88, which reads: "The high seas shall be reserved for peaceful
purposes."(22) All the more so is the EEZ of a coastal State,
reserved for peaceful purposes by article 58(1), which invokes
article 87, which for its part refers to "other internationally
lawful uses of the sea related to these freedoms."(23) Moreover
article 58(2) also applicable to the EEZ, refers back to article 88
and its reference to "peaceful purposes" on the high seas.(24)
Article 301, entitled: "Peaceful uses of the seas", is also very
clear and contains the basic principle of UNCLUS

A spy drone, unlike your maritime examples, is definitely NOT
considered "innocent passage."

I believe a very similar treaty exists for air space incursions,
which as you recall, got very popular in the 50's and 60's until the
Sovs surprised us by shooting down Gary Powers with a missile that
our intel community was sure they didn't possess. What is it with
them? Saddam has WMD's, the Sovs can't touch our U-2s, etc.

Our violating their sovereign airspace apparently lit a big fire
under their missile designers. Just like it's lighting a big
anti-American fire under the Pakistanis:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Fsv74GplsOQoDg

Oct 28, 2011 ISLAMABAD - Around 2,000 Pakistanis demonstrated
outside the country's parliament Friday to demand an end to US drone
strikes, claiming they kill more innocent civilians than Taliban and
Al-Qaeda leaders . . . Cricket hero turned politician Imran Khan led
the Islamabad rally, attended mostly by members of his
Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, which is gearing up to
contest its first general election . . . Some young people in the
crowd set fire to a wooden model of a drone, dancing around and
shouting "No more drone attacks", "No to drones, no to USA", carrying
big signs saying "Stop drone attacks in Pakistan".