On 03/12/2011 12:58, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Long term climate theory

Which theory is that?

Milankovitch et al.

well read up on that. It doesn't fit the data either..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Which data? Last million years or last 100?

It raises more problems than it solves..

All that theorising on such questionable data must have given you
heartburn. ;-)

But to quote one little bit:

"Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane,
roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the
decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around
the year 10,000 CE. This trend, by itself, tends to make winters warmer
and summers colder with an overall cooling trend leading to an ice age,
but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise
in global temperatures and a concurring glacial melt has led some to
attribute recent changes to greenhouse gas emissions."

Now what was it I said elsewhere about there being a hint that without
AGW there would be a slight downward trend. Still looks as though the
next Ice Age is some way off though.

Why isn't it incorporated in the One True Model of the IPCC?

how do you know it isn't?

And do the IPCC really have their own model?

Its hard to say what they have ... apart from one of the most massively
funded PR campaigns of all time.

So you haven't read any of the report then.

--
Roger Chapman