On 02/11/2011 13:29, Clive George wrote:
On 02/11/2011 08:04, Roger Chapman wrote:

*Government's standard assessment procedure apparently but that is
little more than pie in the sky. Only with hindsight will it become
clear how big the margin is between optimistic prediction and cold hard
fact. By way of comparison the endowment I took out in the early 80s
with Government approved predictions was supposed to pay out just over
200% of the assured sum. In the event it paid out just under 100% on
maturity 20 years later.

I don't think the two are remotely comparable.

They both involve a Government issue crystal ball and since when did any
of us trust Government predictions to be anything other than an
optimistic wish list?

I will probably be dead within 25 years but if I am still around and
uk.d-i-y is still functioning I may return to this subject.

Probably still far too early but can someone remind me when it was we
had that discussion about whether or not GW had peaked in 1998.

--
Roger Chapman