On Wed, 02 Nov 2011 08:04:57 +0000, Roger Chapman
wrote:

On 01/11/2011 23:38, Dave Liquorice wrote:

A wasting investment of £15000 needs to pay £600 pa just to return the
capital in 25 years. At 21p that is 2857 KWH just to recover the
capital. Dodgy.

Is it? Harry's system has produced about that over, admitedly summer,
6 months...

ISTR that Harry has claimed that he has an almost ideal situation for
panels so anyone with poor orientation, shading or other issues is not
going to get as good a result. Having said that the SAP* assessment for
my roof is 3336KWh/yr but then I have a 30 degree south facing roof with
very little shading even at the margins of the day.

I can't find any information on the way in which efficiency falls with
age but it must have some effect over 25 years.

The final 15 years at least will be out of guarantee and any substantial
replacement costs for failing equipment could do much more than eat up
any potential profit. In my opinion there is still a risk with a nominal
10% margin if you are unlucky but with 43.3p rather than 21p there is a
much larger cushion.

*Government's standard assessment procedure apparently but that is
little more than pie in the sky. Only with hindsight will it become
clear how big the margin is between optimistic prediction and cold hard
fact. By way of comparison the endowment I took out in the early 80s
with Government approved predictions was supposed to pay out just over
200% of the assured sum. In the event it paid out just under 100% on
maturity 20 years later.

Lucky you. I was told the same but current estimates show mine will
pay about about 2/3 of it's value when it matures in a couple of
years[1]

[1] There is some bull**** "top-up promise" which might increase the
payout but I doubt it will actually happen.
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