Kurt Ullman wrote in
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In article ,
Han wrote:

Kurt Ullman wrote in
m:

Saw a rather interesting study on seekingalpha.com late last
week.
They noted the same thing and suggested that between the Europeans
and the US we were the better bet because we might actually have
taxpayers left in 30 years to pay back the bond.
Back in 1950, as the baby boom was just getting started, each
retiree's benefit was divided among 16 workers. Today, that number
has dropped to 3.3 workers per retiree, and by 2025, it will
reach--and remain at--about two workers per retiree. So it will
only slightly ameliorate the needed money.

I saw something similar a while ago. Your 3.3 and 2 workers/retiree
are for Europe or the US?
US. The European numbers are suspect because they are all over the
place depending on the country. By 2050, it is thought that the
elderly will be around 40% of the population in Japan. They appear to
be in the worst demographic shape.

The European numbers are allover the place because demographic trends
aren't the same. For instance, in at least Italy and France, despite
being nominally Catholic, the people in those countries have managed to
reduce fertility to below 2.3 per family, the generally accepted lvel for
a constant population. Ergo, their populations are shrinking, and
graying. The US, because of higher fertility and immigration of younger
people, isn't as much as Italy and France.
(going by memory, which isn't as good as it used to be).

--
Best regards
Han
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