On Fri, 13 May 2011 15:26:06 -0400, "Arny Krueger"
wrote:

"William Sommerwerck" wrote in
message

After you know there is a goat behind door #3 and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.

This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.

You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?

You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)

Like this...

Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.

That is sheerist ********.

Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games to
play.

Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the first
game, there is no connection. If they brought in another car and another
goat, then the odds during the second game would be the same.

When you play the second game your odds of winning have improved to 1/2.
You have 1 chances out of 2, no more, no less to win when there are 2
opportunities.

Pick whichever door you will, unless you can smell the goat! ;-)

It would appear to me that the real purpose of this thread is to test the
gullibility of people.

Well said. Now if the host only offered the opportunity to chose a
different door if you had chosen the car, changing would be a bad
idea. As it is, the odds are now 1 of 2, rather than 1 of 3.

PlainBill