On May 13, 12:26*pm, "Arny Krueger" wrote:
"William Sommerwerck" wrote in


After you know there is a goat behind door #3 *and are
given a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the
car is behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind
door #2. Change your choice or not, you have a 50%
chance of being right.

This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post.

You seriously think I didn't read your alleged explanation?

You've been known to be wrong before... ;-)

Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door
2/3 of the time (right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time
the good prize will be behind one of the two other doors.
The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3
chance the other door will have the good prize.

That is sheerist ********.

Your first mistake is assuming that there is a connection between your 2
guesses. In fact you have been given two different and disconnected games to
play.

Other than the fact that the car and 1 goat are carries-over from the first
game, there is no connection.

Declaring that there is no connection between the two situations is
the source of the poster's error. Monty Hall knew if the player was
correct or not, and so the player's choice of the door in the first
round influenced the selection of the goat door. The graphic helps you
understand that there are still three scenarios once a goat door has
been revealed.