On 19/03/2011 13:42, Alan wrote:
In message , "Nightjar
\"cpb\"@" wrote

He actually said the evidence is that there had been three in 3,000
years.

Then surely, statistically, there are not enough occurrences to make any
meaningful prediction of it being a 1 in 1000 year occurrence?With so
few points you wouldn't know where you were on the curve. All it can be
said is that it happened before and it is probably that it will happen
again - and within the 40/50 year predicted life-span of the facility.

Unlike you, apparently, I am willing to accept that the head of seismic
hazard at the British Geological Survey has a valid basis for making the
claim. However, without knowing all the facts he based it on, which I
would expect to involve comparing it to the known probabilities of other
events as well, I am not going to try to justify it.

Colin Bignell