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The Natural Philosopher[_2_] The Natural Philosopher[_2_] is offline
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Default is electric heating likely to become cheaper than gas heatingin future?

terry wrote:
On Mar 25, 5:47 am, Bruce wrote:
On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 02:19:17 +0000, Grimly Curmudgeon

wrote:
We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the
drugs began to take hold. I remember Al 1953 saying
something like:
I'm wondering whether I should fork out for gas central heating in my new
house. However, I wonder if elctric heating will be cheaper than gas
heating after they build the new nuclear power stations. I think that's
what happened in France, isn't it?
"Too cheap to meter", that rings a bell.

When they got past that particular barefaced lie, there was a
publicity drive stating that the prices of electricity generated from
nuclear, coal and oil were in the ratio 1:2:3.

But that was also a barefaced lie, as nuclear power in the UK has
always cost more per kWh than electricity produced commercially from
any fossil fuel.

"Peak uranium" is not far behind "peak oil", which is going to happen
within the next decade. The rush to nuclear power, the result of a
desire to lower CO2 emissions, will bring peak uranium ever closer.
Uranium prices will rocket and finding secure supplies will become
ever more difficult.

I wonder what the next "quick fix" will be after nuclear power? Tidal
power, more wind power, perhaps, but these systems don't generate
power reliably when you need them. Clean coal? The first UK clean
coal station has just been denied planning permission on the basis of
a detailed report that showed the technology did not have a cat's
chance in hell of doing what was claimed for it. Biomass? The
proposed biomass power station on Anglesey would need most of its fuel
to be imported over long distances by sea, adding CO2 emissions.

So it looks like nuclear fusion will be needed to save the day. But
it's 20-30 years away. Funnily enough, they said the same 20-30 years
ago. But 20-30 years on, it is still 20-30 years away.

Must keep trying. ;-)


Here; a province in eastern Canada, with a population of approx. a
half million persons, almost all (about 95%) of our electrcity is
generated by hydro. With reasonable insulation levels, very tightly
sealed modern homes having heat recovery air exchangers etc, is
completely competitive with other fuels. Very few new homes now use
other than electricity for heating and it would be true that virtually
100% of new construction is electric. There are no supplies of piped
in gas; propane is used for BarBEQUes and/or delivered to 100 or 200
pound tanks for say a gas fireplace. The occasional restaurant use
propane for cooking stoves.


Hydro, if you have the correct geography, is in fact dirty cheap, as teh
fuel is free. Its very similar to nuclear in that respect, although
nuclear has the added complexity of steam generation and the actual
reactor, so capital costs may be higher, depending on how big a dam has
to be built. Hydro dams though have longer lifetimes than most power
stations .



Electricity is without the complications/hazards of gas lines,
chimneys, combustion chambers, fuel tanks and the need for electricity
anyway to operate relays, pumps, ignition systems and blowers etc.
Electric heating is usually installed by the electricians at same that
they wire the house.

Our electrcity is generated several hundred miles away; a situation
similar to say using Scottish electrcity in Bristol?


a couple of hundred miles of RELIABLE generation to consumer adds about
10% typically to the cost at our rates here (UK)

The problem comes when you have to over specify that to use teh power
that e.g. a windfarm MIGHT generate. Or might not. Because the load
factor is around 30%, you need typically three times as much grid
capacity to fully utilise the windfarm, which is a hidden cost that is
almost never mentioned by anyone, and certainly never by the Dynamo
Devotees.


Here there are no cheap rates, all domestic electrcity is rated the
same no matter when consumed. Taking an average domestic electrcity
bill (monthly billing) and dividing by the number of kilowatts used it
average to just over 10 cents per k.watt/hr (Unit). This takes into
account a monthly per account charge of about $16 (About ten quid even
if no electricity is used) and an overall sales-tax of, now, 13%.


I suspect that because when its cold, people run heating 24x7, and when
its hot, aircon 24x7 :-)

Reliability of service is excellent, even with heavy icing and snow
storms. The general use of aerial lines and connections to individual
homes also allows very fast restoration. Imagine trying to dig up a
street with below freezing temps and traffic!


There you are wrong. Aerial lines may fix faster, but they need fixing
more often. For which reason the National Grid here no longer builds any
11KV overheads and all new build houses have underground feeders.

They almost never go wrong.

Whereas we get outages from the overhead 11KV stuff every year. Trees or
wing causing them to arc over., or simple insulator degradation causing
similar.


Although its 5 times more expensive to underground, in general, the cost
benefit from less maintenance makes it ultimately the cheaper way to
manage lines at these intermediate voltages.

At higher voltages the capacitative loss to ground makes it infeasible
sadly. Unless you use DC. But that has other problems.


Billing methods are
operated very fairly and speedily and phone access to power co.
service-reps. or maintenance depts. is good. Rates are regulated by a
provincial government Public Utilities Board.

Personal electric baseboard maintenance cost for this all-electric
house during the last 40 years has been less than $100; two
thermostats and one circuit breaker. None of the approx. dozen
baseboard heaters, ranging from 500 watt (bathroom) to 3000 watt (two
1500s end to end in the biggest room) have gone open or given other
trouble. We do use a small fan in the family room which is open to the
kitchen and also to the front hall/passage way to bedroom (all on one
floor bungalow) to help circulate the heat.

Allowing for other costs versus the low front end cost of an electric
heating installation (electrcity being needed anyway for other
household work) compared to the first costs and other trades need for
other fuels it would appear that, here, that basic electric heating
would be/is competitive up to somewhere around 1.5 times the cost of
the fuel.


Yes, its very cheap. I doubt even nuclear can match a good hydro power
installation.

And of course Canada is home to the CANDU reactor which is also very
cheap per Kwh as a generator.


Air and occasionally ground heat pumps are appearing in some newer
houses. First costs of a minimum additional $15,000 to $20,000 are
mentioned for an average 3 bedroom two storey house of around 2000 to
2500 sq. feet. They seem to work OK? Down to around minus 10 to 15
degrees Celsius? Especially when windy (not uncommon here next tot he
North Atlantic!) Below which it becomes electric heating. Much larger
homes are appearing with, rumoured heating installations costs much
higher!


yes, the heatpump doesn't do a good job at REALLY low temps.

We are, ironically, subjected to acid rain from North American
industrial pollution; which afterwards blows out over the Atlantic
towards Europe. There's no such thing IOHO, as 'clean coal'; as
British cities found out about a century ago? One does recall walking
right up to the side of a fully lit up a double decker bus (Unlike the
red London buses, were they green? Or was that only Liverpool buses
and trams,) in Manchester in 1955/56 and being a few feet away before
knowing what it was!

Anyway just for comparison-info/comment. BTW It's about plus 3 degrees
C. today (unusually mild for here) snow mostly gone it but feels damp
and bone chilling!