On 3/19/2010 7:12 PM, Ignoramus4239 wrote:
On 2010-03-20, wrote:
On Mar 19, 9:25?pm,
wrote:
For those interested in estimating chances of Obamacare legislation
passing, here's an interesting page:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=709242

Intrade is a prediction market, and participants, who are betting with
real money, currently estimate the chance of it passing as 84%.

i

So does Intrade have any predictions on the 2010 elections? Is Reid
likely to be reelected?

I have not looked. Check it out and let us know. I am sure that there
are some contracts regarding 2010 elections.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp

For example, nomination of Palin is priced as a 23% chance. 2010
recession as 18%. Euro dropped in 2010 at 12%. A lot of interesting
predictions are traded at intrade.

i


Political election predictions made more than 6 months out are virtually
worthless.

Hawke