On 2010-03-20, Wes wrote:
Ignoramus4239 wrote:

For those interested in estimating chances of Obamacare legislation
passing, here's an interesting page:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=709242

Intrade is a prediction market, and participants, who are betting with
real money, currently estimate the chance of it passing as 84%.

i

So what is their accuracy of past predictions?

Some things are inherently unpredictable or have a probability of an
event change because of something. But their estimates have been very
good, in general.

i