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Larry Jaques[_2_] Larry Jaques[_2_] is offline
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Default Tom Ingram's Industry Outlook

On Thu, 18 Mar 2010 09:49:16 -0500, the infamous Swingman
scrawled the following:

On 3/18/2010 3:41 AM, wrote:

The fun part is that event though prices of oil have gone down from
where they were generating a near $4 a gallon cost of gas, the prices
of shingles, felt paper, cold process, asphalt, etc., hasn't come down
a cent.


Nor has gasoline, despite the 75% drop in oil prices. Effin' ripoffs.
But what about freakin' hardware prices? Screws are double what they
were a few years ago. Nails tripled, Simpson galv work is through the
GDMF roof.


Yep, about 18 months ago I got an email for Brinkmann roofing, who I've
used frequently for the past few years, giving advance warning that
shingle prices would double in the near term.

I used to worry about plywood being stolen overnight on a site, but
never shingles. It got so bad shortly after that email that shingles
were being stolen overnight, by the pallet load, from lumber yards ...
hell, they aren't even safe onsite, still bundled, on a roof, overnight
with no ladder onsite.


Wow!


So, on the last house I finished in October I spec'ed a galvalume roof.
Pricey upfront, but that margin is narrowing with these shingle prices,
and metal is making more economic sense over the long haul, although it
would be a tough sell in some markets.

AAMOF, I believe Leon has had a metal shingle roof on his house for
years ... and that boy makes his nickels count.


I put a metal roof on the carport I built last year. It oughta be
good for my lifetime.


A little healthy profiteering, you think?


You nailed it, Bubba! I've contended that from the beginning. Now that
they've started their little justification game for price increase, the
mere suspicion that underlying prices are trending upwards is enough
trigger the greed button.


It truly sucks.


I've watched this site for some time to get a sense of what I'm going to
have to deal with 12 months down the road:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/#Overview


Our electric company just requested a 20% jump in prices to fund a
wind farm, in the middle of a depr^H^H^H^Hrecession. Go figure!


I've got one lot left that we bought two years ago to build on. At this
point in time, and unless someone wants to buy it for a custom, there is
NO way in hell I'm going to build a spec in this market.


I grok that in its entirety.


IOW, I'm basically dead in the water at the moment.


Sux 2 B U, huh? I'm very busy, and it only just started getting sunny
on Monday. The crush of Spring work hasn't started yet.

I also noticed that there are now 5 additional listings in the
Handyman section of the local daily paper I advertise in. All of them
are full contractors, looking for the little stuff to keep themselves
going.


Speaking of "houses", know anyone wants to buy a chicken coop? G


I thought you gave that to the lady friend. Well, at least don't sell
your doghouse. (You inhabit that too much, don't you?

--
No matter how cynical you are, it is impossible to keep up.
--Lily Tomlin