ian field wrote:
"Martin Riddle" wrote in message
...
"ian field" wrote in message
...
Currently snowed in - the guest room has been made up for me but I
don't feel like sleeping.
How quick does a splash of bourbon evaporate from a hot coffee?
The news reports claim that the snow storms have hit as far as Spain
(which is apparently very unusual) its still snowing when I just
looked out and doesn't look like getting any better by the new day!
The tobacco man is due back from the continent on Friday and his
route across SE England is even worse hit than here, With only 1/4
pouch left its going to be difficult to get back and find out
whether he made it back.
After a long struggle I got the motorcycle up the drive and across
the footpath (sidewalk) but got bogged down before I made it to the
ruts made by the cars, once everyone's up tomorrow I can scrounge a
spade to dig the bike out and get to the ruts.
Its winter, what do you expect?
The great global warming hoax leads us to expect milder winters.
We've not had snow of any significance before mid February for as many
winters back as I can remember.
This seems to be a freak weather event, the news forecaster said the
cold snap has ripped through N Europe - even hitting Spain
(apparently pretty rare!).
How does this water get into the air? Ocean warming.
http://ecws.eas.cornell.edu/degaetano_MetApps_web.pdf
Abstract
The characteristics of seasons with enhanced East Coast winter storm and
storm
surge activity are identified from among a set of global atmospheric
circulation indices
and local land and sea surface temperature anomalies. Without regard for
storm strength
or surge potential, the most active East Coast winter storm (ECWS) seasons
occur in
association with El Niņo events. There is also some indication that such
seasons are
preferred under the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In
terms of storm
surge potential, forecasts of strong ECWS activity are more skillful than
direct forecasts
of the number of extreme surge events. In both cases, sea surface
temperatures (SST) off
the southeast U.S. coast and in the Gulf of Mexico differentiate high
seasonal activity
from relatively inactive seasons. Warmer than normal SST in both regions
during
summer provide a measure of storm activity in the subsequent winter.
The results provide a means of anticipating seasonal East Coast winter storm
activity, and to some degree impacts, that is similar to widely used
forecasts of tropical
storm activity. From a predictive standpoint, forecasts of active strong
storm seasons and
low surge activity exhibit fairly high false alarm ratios. However, the
false alarm rate for
forecasts of low storm activity or high surge activity is less than 10%.
Welcome to the warmest instrumentally measured decade in history.