On Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:31:59 -0500, wrote:

On Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:28:19 -0800 (PST), "
wrote:

On Nov 25, 2:02?pm, wrote:


actually statitics prove the longer something hasnt happened the
greater bthe risk it will

No. Past events have no effect on the chance of a future event.

Neither statement is 100% valid.

It depends on all kinds of things. In this instance, consider what
happens to the prob. of crushed kid after a "Now, go out and play in
the traffic, kids"-type mom moves in next door.

And if that doesn't convince ya, try:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Willie