Jeff Liebermann wrote:

Chuckle 2.0. Statistics time. Let's pretend that a large quantity of
old electrolytic capacitors were defective. In that case, they would
have died long ago, been recycled, leaving only the good electrolytic
capacitors. 30 years later, all you see are good working ancient
equipment. Not having seen the older blown caps, you might presume
that all ancient electrolytics are reliable over a long term.

Go over to any of the newsgroups, mailing lists or websites dedicated to
using tube, as in when they were popular, not modern stuff because "it sounds
good" :-) radios.

The first thing anyone will tell you is check the tubes, the second is replace
ALL of the capacitors starting with the electrolytics. Electrolytics dry out
from lack of use, and there are ways of getting them working again without
destroying them, but it is not always successful.

.....

Incidentally, I have a 486DX2/66 and Conner 1Gbyte SCSI HD in my
palatial office, running SCO Open Desktop 3.2v4.2 since about 1990.
The PS blew up at one point and I've blown 2 CPU fans, but otherwise,
it's much the same today as it was 19 years ago. From this evidence,
do I deduce that the older motherboards, hard disks, and operating
systems are more reliable than today's equivalents?

So David and Jeff, the chance of the devices you mention that are in
continous usage still working tomorrow morning is pretty good.

The chances of the identical device having sat for almost 20 years in a closet
without being touched is almost nill.

As for Jeff's conclusion, I would say the evidence supports it, which is not
proof. On the other hand since the great capacitor disaster of 2002, I would
say yes, the modern equipment is not designed with long term longevity in
mind.

Geoff.

--
Geoffrey S. Mendelson, Jerusalem, Israel N3OWJ/4X1GM