On Jul 22, 2:06*am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


No, that has nothing to do with it. But if you did an honest regression
analysis, and didn't cherry-pick extreme examples like the NRA is wont to
do, you'll find that what I said is exactly on the mark. The
county-by-county correlation coefficient is something over 0.7.

Now, the dimmer bulbs who get involved with this issue will assume that I'm
trying to imply some kind of causation. I'm not, as I made clear above.
There certainly is an effect that people who live in high crime areas
(Dallas being the extreme example; Miami was the example a decade or two
ago) will jump at getting a CCW when the law makes it possible, because they
already have a high crime rate. In that case, higher rates of concealed
carry tend to reflect an already existing crime problem. However, keep in
mind that there is no state in the US in which more than 2% or perhaps
2-1/2% of the adult population obtains a CCW permit. Mostly, it matures at
around 1% - 1-1/2%.



Still, the correlation between rates of CCW holders, which is
more than twice as high in Kern County as any other county in California,
and violent crime is very high. It's more than 2.5X the rate in my county,
which is more representative of places where there is virtually NO gun
culture left at all.

These things tend to be denied by the hard-core gun cultists, but they're
demonstrably true. They're not worth arguing about because a day or two of
real, honest examination of data takes the wind right out of the argument..
I've had to do it several times, especially when I was writing and lobbying
against some gun control measures here in NJ in the early '90s. At some
level of discussion, you have to deal with the reality rather than with the
silly anecdotes, like your comparison of Washington and Bismark. That level
of discussion is almost never reached in forums such as this one. But if you
get an audience with a legislator who is facing a bill concerning gun
control, you'd better not try "Washington vs. Bismark." They'll dismiss you
out of hand.

--
Ed Huntress

I do believe that there is a correlation between CCW's and violent
crime, but it seems fairly obvious to me that the high crime rate
inspires more people to carry. Don Foreman is a RCM example. You can
not get a CCW if you are a violent criminal, and while some CCW
holders may end up committing violent crimes, the rate is probably the
same or lower than the general population in the same area. It is
pretty hard to argue that CCW holders are the ones raising the violent
crime rate.

The comparison of Washington DC to most anywhere is not silly. It
pretty much proves that although there is a correlation between CCW
holders and violent crime, CCW holders do not cause violent crime.
Washington DC has the highest violent crime rate and the worst public
schools. Bismark probably does not have a high rate of CCW holders,
but it probably has a higher per capita gun ownership than Washington,
DC.

You might want to look at the violent crime rate for Kennesaw GA. In
2005 the violent crime rate jumped to 121 from the 2004 rate of 91.
For the last 25 years heads of households have been required to own
guns and ammo. Oddly your site for violent crime rates does not
include Morton Grove, IL.

I do not understand your comments on the low percentage of CCW
holders. So the percentage is less than 2 or 3 percent. How does
this relate to anything? To me it just means that even in high crime
areas, most people either think that the effort to get a CCW , gun to
carry, and the time to practice to be proficient with a gun is not
worth while.

I have thought about getting a CCW, but not very seriously. Only once
in my life has there been a occasion where having a gun would have
been nice. And in that case it turned out to be not needed. Besides I
think a pistol is something you carry when you do not think you are
going to need a gun. Shotguns are a much better home defense weapon.
And you do not see soldiers carrying pistols into combat where one
expects to use a weapon.

There is a bill being considered in Congress that would allow a CCW
holder to carry in every state in which CCW's are issued. Kind of
makes sense to me. If you have a drivers license, you can drive in
every state.


Dan