Roughneck wrote:
"HeyBub" wrote:

Jim Yanik wrote:

We have not yet discovered all the world's accessible oil deposits.
(nor began drilling or producing from what we have discovered.)
So any claim of "peak oil" can be made is just a psychic
prediction,and worth about as much.

Not only, but there is an hypothesis that oil is being CREATED - in
significant amounts and by dimly understood processes - as we speak.

Dimly understood processes, eh? Now who's in need of a psychic? It
would be nice if you were right, but I'm not holding my breath.

No more dimly than the classic view: "The original creation of oil or
petroleum is not well understood. There are several theories, but the matter
is still one of scientific controversy."
http://www.bydesign.com/fossilfuels/...il_create.html

One of the big "gotchas" is how did hydrocarbons pop up on Jupiter and
Saturn if hydrocarbon creation depended solely on decomposed plant material?

Then there's this book: "The deep, hot, biosphere"
http://www.amazon.com/Deep-Hot-Biosp...3340325&sr=8-1




You're right about one thing, though - it's hard to predict the peak
in advance. But, it will come, nonetheless. And, while there will be
new discoveries, I wouldn't hold my breath for a miracle. Current
estimates of recoverable oil are based in part on what we expect to
find. So, in essence, the "new discoveries" are already accounted for.

All the counter arguments you put forth have been heard before - in
the 1950s. Back then, it was put forth that the US would have a
production peak in the coming decade. Then, as now, there were howls
of derision and lots of folks with their head in the sand that were
convinced that the oil would last forever.

US oil production peaked in 1970. Today, the US produces about half of
the oil we did then. No amount of new discoveries, better technology,
or "dimly understood processes" has been able to change that.

I agree that no amount of discoveries or technology will change production
rates. Changes in the political world will. But it doesn't matter.

Oil is fungible. Oil from here is pretty much the same as oil from there.
Price is pretty much inelastic.

Furthering the goal of increased domestic production to diminish reliance on
foreign hostile regimes is kinda silly in that most of our "foreign" oil
comes from Canada, Mexico, and Nigeria.