On Nov 2, 3:49*pm, Wes wrote:
"Ed Huntress" wrote:
Getting back to my original point, the growth model isn't working. *This
isn't an empty
country with huge resources to exploit. *The export market isn't as big as
it once was. We
need to figure out how to live within the reality that the growth model is
getting just as
tapped out as the oil patch.

There are non-growth models of economics, untested and hotly debated, that
are promoted by the green/sustainable/leftish crowd. There are fundamental
issues with such models that upend some of the precepts of capitalism
itself. If I were a student now I'd be interested in studying them.

While I don't count myself amoungst the g/s/l crowd, I do think they have some valid
points. *The question is when they are going to start making sense to a sizable majority
of the population.

I wonder how traditional things like home sales are going to far when the boombers start
dying off. *How a drawdown of investments will affect the market as they pull out funds to
live on. *In addition to the current mess, I already had worries about the next 15 years.



But back for a moment to deflation -- do you follow the basic idea? Growth
models or not, that's the way the system works now. Slowdowns can be
handled. Declining prices are not necessarily bad. But put the two together,
and pass a tipping point of low interest rates with negative growth, and
you're in a deflationary spiral. And those scare economists far more than
inflationary spirals do.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around it but I do see sense in what you are saying. *I
have a feeling this Christmas season is going to be hard on retailers since they typically
make most of their profits during the holliday season. *Credit card companies have pulled
down limits on credit cards and hiked interest rates to reduce exposure and I have a
feeling there are more people this year that are scaling down purchases for the holiday
season.

I was really hoping to avoid living in interesting times. ;

Wes

LOL...Wes we all are witnessing history in the making.

Think of it as "When the Republicans Stole Christmas"

It's going to be a bloodbath in retailing this Christmas.

TMT

"For many retailers, holiday sales account for as much as 40% of their
annual revenue and up to 80% of their profits — hence the name Black
Friday or the day when stores traditionally go from being "in the red"
to "in the black." "

http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...855555,00.html