In article ,
Ignoramus24384 wrote:

On 2008-10-21, Gunner Asch wrote:
On Tue, 21 Oct 2008 09:06:20 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:

FWIW -- an additional drop of "only" 10% in aggregate residential
house prices seems far too low given the 18 month supply of new
houses in many areas, the huge run-up in values in many "hot"
urban areas, tightening lending terms, and probability of a
serious recession or economic contraction. I think your estimate
of 15-20% is far more likely, however even this may be low.


Im thinking more like 20-35% in some areas, such as mine..or even
more...

Ive believed that a 50% drop (or more ) is entirely consistant with
the over priceing due to the bubble..There are entire housing tracts
in my area, Bakersfield California, that are band spanking new..and
have been sitting vacant for 18 months already,, already becoming
victims of roving parties of teens, or those stealing brand new
appliences, never used, right out of the homes, along with copper pipe
and wire.

The decrease in Illegal immigration over the past year is also
contributing to a surplus of housing. as is the economy...as more
illegals cant find jobs, and are returning to their home countries.

How much have the prices dropped in your area already?

I'm not far from Gunner.

My neighbor's house sold for $375k three years ago, was foreclosed on
two months ago, went on the market for $208K yesterday.

The last appraisal on my house was $368K. Four years ago. I'm afraid of
what it might be now.

-Frank

--
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