The message
from Terry Fields contains these words:

I have now tracked this down:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...riability.html

The fall is of the order of 0.6C which is indeed steep and maybe the
greatest so far (not by much) but being monthly averages rather than
yearly we should expect more variability and what Monckton doesn't say
but the Met Office does is that January 2007 was the warmest January
since records began, hardly evidence of global cooling.

It remains to be seen whether January 2007 really was the peak or
whether January 2008 is just another sore thumb like 1998 in the annual
figures.

Anyone like to hazard a guess as to where the January 2009 figure is
likely to be? The Met Office thinks the trend is still upward. The
actual figure should be available in about 6 months time.

Interesting...thanks for the link.

It's a matter of personal opinion, but the very last sentence in that
report - "In future, while the trend in global temperatures is
predicted to remain upwards, we will continue to see inherent
variability of this kind" - is just a tad weasley, and may be the
start of a bit of back-tracking.

They are keeping their options open. The points on the January graph go
up and down like a yo-yo and 0.3C reversals over 2 or 3 years are not
uncommon. Damp the vibrations out and you would end up with almost a
straight line since 1970 with an increase over the period of about 0.6C.

As you say, only time will tell.

Yes indeed. We can return to this argument every year and in 5 or so
years we should be reasonably certain whether any corner has been turned
in 2008. :-)

--
Roger Chapman