Thread: OT-AIG's Demise
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F. George McDuffee F. George McDuffee is offline
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Default OT-AIG's Demise

On Mon, 15 Sep 2008 02:54:49 -0700, "azotic"
wrote:

The American International Group is seeking a $40 billion bridge loan from
the Federal Reserve, as it faces a potential downgrade from credit ratings
agencies that could spell its doom, a person briefed on the matter said
Sunday night.

Ratings agencies threatened to downgrade the insurance giant's credit rating
by Monday morning, allowing counterparties to withdraw capital from their
contracts with the company. One person close to the firm said that if such
an event occurred, A.I.G. may survive for only 48 hours to 72 hours.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20.../index.html?hp
Best Regards


Tom.

---------------
While I indicated in another thread that I thought that
WaMu/Providian was up next on the hit list, you may very well be
right.

In the past when "high rollers" such as LTCM or
Drexel-Burnham-Lambert "bit the big one," there were enough other
firms with considerable "skin in the game," for rescues, or at
least soft [enough] landings, to preserve the tables for some new
players.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Te...tal_Management
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drexel_Burnham_Lambert

It is no longer possible to rob Peter to pay Paul, as not only
Peter, but Matthew, Mark, Luke and John are all "maxed out," with
markers all over town, even if they are not yet technically
busted. At this point it is not "double down," but "all in."

In one weekend not only did Lehman Brothers go, but also the
"thundering herd" AKA Merrill, Lynch [I can remember when this
was Merrill, Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Bean...]

WaMu/Providian, AIG, GMAC, the airlines and the Detroit
automotives all come to mind in just this country, and with
programmed/robot trading we have just seen what a 5 year old news
story can do. [75% loss of market cap in less than 2 hours!!!!]
http://www.canada.com/topics/travel/...b-414fce8ffab8

The big worry is hitting another "daily double," or even the
exacta/quinella/trifecta, given the extraordinary interconnection
[incest?] between/among financial sectors across countries, and
as Warren Buffet so astutely observed "derivatives are financial
weapons of mass destruction," with total face/notational values
now estimated to be into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parimutuel_betting
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trifecta

Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?

Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).